Can President Donald Trump win Minnesota? The polls say no, as does history, but that was true in a host of states Trump won in 2016. Judging from his rally schedule and his rhetoric, the president has not given up on the Gopher State.
Minnesota is home to Minneapolis, where riots and arson fires over the death of George Floyd sparked a national movement toward defunding police. That issue seems tailor-made to Trump’s law-and-order message (whether it will move the needle in the ballot box is unclear.)
The state also has a competitive Senate race, where the GOP candidate Jason Smith is basically tied against a Democratic incumbent, Tina Lewis, which might be giving the president some hope. That race is painted as a battle among the red rural areas, blue Minneapolis-St. Paul urban center, and purple suburbs. As with Trump, Smith has run on a law-and-order-message geared toward suburbanites skittish of talk about abolishing police departments and images of burning businesses and a police precinct.
Trump has repeatedly railed against the state’s Democratic governor and Minneapolis mayor. “The governor wants to play games,” Trump told reporters of Gov. Tim Walz (D) after a Minnesota rally, according to The Hill. “He’s a weak governor. He’s done a terrible job. He doesn’t know what the hell he is doing. You’ve got thousands of people that are injured by this.” Officials limited the size of his rallies to 250 people because of COVID-19, which upset the president. The state is also a focal point for tensions over immigration, due to its large Somali immigrant population.
Follow the 2020 presidential election results courtesy of Heavy’s partners at Decision Desk HQ below:
See the Most Recent Presidential Election Results From Minnesota & the Map of Votes Across the State Here
The results in the presidential race for Minnesota can be viewed in the widget below, which updates in real-time. You should choose the map of Minnesota to see that state’s results.
Below is the map for control of the Senate. Similarly, you can hover over the state of Minnesota to keep updated on that race.
Minnesota Hasn’t Elected a Republican as President Since Nixon
How big of an upset would Minnesota be? Very.
It’s been a long time since Minnesota elected a Republican as president, and Trump wasn’t able to lock down the state despite prevailing in nearby Wisconsin, Michigan and rust-belt Pennsylvania in 2016.
“Minnesota voted exclusively Republican from 1860 through the onset of the Great Depression, except for 1912 when it sided with Progressive candidate (and former Republican) Theodore Roosevelt,” according to 270toWin.
“From 1932 onward, the state has primarily voted Democratic, last voting Republican during Nixon’s landslide victory in 1972.” The state even rebuffed Ronald Reagan in 1984, but local favorite Senator Walter Mondale was on the ballot. The state’s strong history of labor unions is part of the reason.
However, according to the site, Clinton won Minnesota by only 1.5%.
For Trump, in 2020, Minnesota remains a long-shot state, albeit a back-up plan. If he could pull a rabbit out of his hat and somehow flip the state, it means he can afford to lose other states that aren’t sure things either (like Wisconsin).
The Polls Show a Significant Biden Lead
Despite the close margin of victory for Clinton in 2016, the polls are showing Joe Biden with a significant lead in Minnesota. However, that’s also true of states that Trump won in 2016, like Wisconsin and Michigan.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, as of November 1, Biden was leading Trump in Minnesota by an average 4.4%.
Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning pollster that called Pennsylvania and Michigan for Trump in 2016 when almost no one else was, has Biden leading Trump in Minnesota by 3%.