Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Point Spread, Total & Prediction

Derrick Henry Alabama, Alabama Mississippi State spread, Alabama Mississippi State pick

Derrick Henry and the Crimson Tide are favored to win big Saturday in Starkville. (Getty)

Editor’s note: The odds below are courtesy of Heavy’s partners at OddsShark. Click here for more college football odds and betting info at

The surging Alabama Crimson Tide will try to avoid a letdown and stymie Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott in a pivotal SEC West college football betting matchup.

Alabama, fresh off completely throttling Heisman Trophy favorite Leonard Fournette in their win against LSU, are listed as 8-point favorites against the host Bulldogs at sportsbooks monitored by The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four games in this matchup. Alabama is 7-0 SU over its last seven tilts against Mississippi State.

Coach Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are 8-1 SU and 4-5 ATS, with their lone loss coming to the Bulldogs’ rival, Mississippi, which also tries to spread out opposing defenses. Alabama is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight November road games, but had no trouble covering in its ‘swing games’ against Georgia and LSU. The Tide will also have the benefit of lining up star CB Cyrus Jones on DeRunya Wilson, MSU’s best WR.

Alabama also has a huge advantage in the ground phase, where they have the No. 2 rush defense while MSU is No. 94 in rushing within the Football Bowl Subdivision. Offensively, RB Derrick Henry and his blockers will look to grind out first downs against a MSU defense that Football Outsiders ranks 117th in FBS at allowing methodical drives of at least 10 plays. A ball-control offense is sometimes the best defense.

Prescott, who averages close to 285 passing yards when he has played a full game, leads a Mississippi State team that is an intriguing underdog. The Bulldogs are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS for the season. Prescott is a pinpoint passer who has only one interception this season, and three of the Tide’s 12 losses since 2008 came at the hands of dual-threat quarterbacks that eventually won the Heisman Trophy.

The total for Saturday’s Alabama vs. Mississippi State betting matchup is set at 52 points at the sportsbooks. The total has gone UNDER in four of the Tide’s last six games. The total has gone OVER in four of the Bulldogs’ last six home games.

The OddsShark Computer is projecting a 34-32.8 Mississippi State victory, but it is hard not to like Alabama in the wake of its dominant outputs against stronger SEC teams.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State pick: Alabama ATS & SU