Aaron Rodgers has had the Dallas Cowboys’ number over the years, but strength in numbers – a healthy supporting cast – might work against the Green Bay Packers in a rematch from last season’s playoffs.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites against the Packers with a 53 total in their NFL Week 5 matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Dallas, which lost against Green Bay in the divisional round in 2016, doesn’t let many teams beat them twice in a row. The Cowboys are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after losing the previous game in a matchup. The Packers, who had a long prep period after a Thursday night win against the Chicago Bears in Week 4, are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a win.
Green Bay, which is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, is thin in the backfield since RB Ty Montgomery (ribs) is listed as doubtful, which could affect their ability to take advantage of Dallas’ suspect rush defense. The Packers might have RT Bryan Bulaga back, though. In the passing phase, one variable is whether the longer break will help WR Davante Adams (concussion) come back to challenge Dallas, which allows just 6.7 yards per throw and is tied for third in the NFL with 12 sacks.
Dallas, which is 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS, isn’t quite as loaded along the offensive line as it was last season, which has put more of the onus on QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott. Green Bay is allowing more than four yards per rush and has not covered passes to running backs well, so there is potential for Elliott to lead the way as Dallas controls the tempo and the clock.
The total has gone over in 14 of the Packers’ last 20 games against the Cowboys, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.
Elsewhere this weekend, the Houston Texans host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in a pick’em with a 45 total in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Kansas City, which is 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road, opened laying 3.5 points before news that QB Alex Smith (ankle) will be playing hurt broke on Friday. Houston, who has found a QB in rookie Deshaun Watson, is due to improve on a 3-21-1 ATS mark in its last 25 prime-time games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 7.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 42 total, after opening as a nine-point favorite. The Steelers and QB Ben Roethlisberger are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of at least seven points. The total has gone over in eight of the Jaguars’ last nine games after losing as a favorite.
The Detroit Lions are 2.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers with a 42 total. The Panthers, who should have more use of OLB Thomas Davis (ribs), are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. The Lions, 9-3 SU in their last 12 early-afternoon games, will need improved offensive line play to support QB Matthew Stafford.
And the Los Angeles Rams are a one-point favorite against the Seattle Seahawks with a 48 total. The Seahawks, who are underdogs to the Rams for the first time in six years, have QB Russell Wilson fully healthy but their pass protection and run blocking issues are heavy baggage to take into this matchup. The Rams, facing a team allowing the second-most yards per rush in the NFL, will try to improve on a 2-9 ATS mark over their last 11 games.
For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.