Notre Dame heads south to take on Miami in a renewal of an old rivalry with College Football Playoff implications. According to OddsShark, Notre Dame is a three-point road favorite, and the over-under is set at 57.5 points.
Notre Dame has fared much better in Vegas than Miami as the Irish are 7-2 against the spread. Despite being a perfect 8-0 straight up, Miami is just 4-4 against the spread. Seven of Miami’s eight contests have gone under the point total, while six of Notre Dame’s nine games hit the over.
The public is siding with Notre Dame with 63 percent of bettors taking the Irish against the spread. Both teams are key players in the College Football Playoff race as Notre Dame sits at No. 3 while Miami is ranked No. 7 in the latest rankings.
Here’s a look at both team’s resumes, what the metrics tell us about the matchup and our prediction for the Notre Dame-Miami prime time game.
How They Got Here
Last week, Miami responded to critics who pointed to their lack of a signature win with a decisive victory against Virginia Tech to remain undefeated. After a streak of close ACC matchups, Miami proved they could put their foot on the gas when they needed to, as the Hurricanes came away with a 28-10 victory over the Hokies. Miami also has wins over Florida State, Duke, Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
As their higher playoff ranking shows, Notre Dame does enter the game with a stronger resume. According to the Sagarin rankings, Notre Dame’s strength of schedule ranks 14th compared to Miami’s 31st ranked schedule.
Notre Dame is coming off a 48-37 victory over Wake Forest. Brandon Wimbush and Josh Adams both left the Wake Forest game with injuries, but both players will play against Miami.
The Irish have three wins against teams ranked in the College Football Playoff with victories over NC State, USC and Michigan State. Notre Dame’s lone blemish came in a one-point loss to top ranked Georgia.
Adams has been one of the top running backs in the country, rushing for 1,191 yards, nine touchdowns while averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per carry.
What the Computers Say
The OddsShark computer likes Miami’s chances of pulling off the upset. The computer projects a 36.2-34.8 Miami victory. The computer is taking Miami to cover the spread, and the over on the point total.
SB Nation’s S&P+ also likes Miami, but by a much narrower margin. The computer projects Miami to come away with a 29.8-28.9 victory over the Irish. The S&P+ computer gives Miami a 52 percent chance to win, making the game close to a coin flip.
Anyone who tuned into the Miami-Virginia Tech game noticed the atmosphere at Hard Rock Stadium was as festive as we have seen from Miami in years. We tend to like home underdogs, and the fact that Miami is back to having a legitimate home field advantage tilts this game in their favor. Look for Miami to pull off the upset, as they insert themselves into the College Football Playoff.
Heavy’s Pick: Miami 31 Notre Dame 28. Miami Covers +3 Spread. Over on the Point Total.