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No. 5 Texas Covers +7.5 Spread vs. Oklahoma in Big 12 Championship
Let's not overthink this, Texas is catching more than seven points against an Oklahoma team they defeated earlier this season. While I don't think the Longhorns will pull off the season sweep, I do expect this rivalry matchup to come down to the wire. Neither Texas or Oklahoma have been particularly strong in Vegas this season.
Oklahoma is a dismal 4-7-1 against the spread, while Texas is slightly better at 5-6-1. However, the Longhorns are 2-0-1 as an underdog, which they will be on Saturday.
The Sooners have the best offense in the country, but the problem is they cannot stop anybody. Oklahoma allowed quarterback Sam Ehlinger to have nearly 400 total yards in their first matchup. Oklahoma's three turnovers cost them the initial game against Texas.
Texas head coach Tom Herman believes the Longhorns are facing the same Oklahoma squad they saw earlier this season.
"...And what a special player the quarterback is and what a special player he is and the numbers he has, (but) you’ve got to stop the run," Herman told the Austin American-Statesman. "The last five or six games, at least 290 yards rushing in each of those games, so we’ve got to stop the run and we obviously have to contain him, which means we’ve got to play well on the perimeter then, too, because he can really throw it. But no, they haven’t gotten better. They were doing all this stuff before they played us, too. It’s remarkable to watch them.”
Texas Is the Only Team to Beat Oklahoma This Season
Oklahoma has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, while Texas has an opportunity to play spoiler for their rival. A win would also put the Longhorns in the conversation for a New Year's Six game.
For all of Texas' flaws, they have done the one thing no one else on Oklahoma's schedule accomplished which is to beat the Sooners. Texas will find it difficult to make the same thing happen twice, but I would be surprised if this matchup does not come down to the final minutes.
With the Sooners in close contention with the Buckeyes and Bulldogs for potentially the final playoff spot, Oklahoma needs to not only beat Texas but do it convincingly to try to impress the committee. Oklahoma has the offense to do just that, but you have to wonder if this will lead to the Sooners pressing a bit. We saw in their first meeting with Texas that turnovers were a major factor.
Look for Oklahoma to get the win, but not as comfortably as Sooners fans may want as Texas covers the spread.
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College Football Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread Week 14