Patriots vs. Chiefs: Odds, Betting Line & AFC Championship Prediction

Patrick Mahomes

Getty Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

With the Kansas City Chiefs rolling past the Indianapolis Colts in dominant 31-13 fashion, it left Patrick Mahomes and company waiting in the AFC Championship Game. Their opponent would be decided Sunday afternoon in a game between the New England Patriots and arguably the Chiefs’ biggest rival in the Los Angeles Chargers.

Barring an incredible late comeback from the Chargers, a dominant first-half performance helped push the Patriots to their eighth-straight AFC title game. Although the Patriots finished with an 11-5 regular-season record, they’ll be on the road in this game as the Chiefs wrapped up the year at 12-4 to earn the No. 1 seed. Playing in Arrowhead is a tall task at any point, and if the divisional round was any indication, the Kansas City fanbase will add to the home-field advantage in a big way.

We’re going to dive in and look at the early odds and betting line while also breaking down a prediction and pick on the Patriots-Chiefs game.


Patriots vs. Chiefs Odds & Line

The early odds have been released by Jeff Sherman of Superbook USA and feature the Chiefs coming in as small favorites. Arguably the more eye-opening number may be the projected total on this game, which starts just south of 60 points.

  • New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
  • Over/Under 59

Kansas City opening as the favorite isn’t all that surprising, and prior to the game, there were rumblings that they’d open at a number around 4-4.5 points. The high projected total stands out, but considering the two teams finished the regular season among the highest-scoring teams, it makes sense. The Chiefs boasted the No. 1 scoring offense at 35.3 points per game while the Patriots were No. 4 at 27.3 points per.

This matchup will be the late game on championship Sunday, and kickoff is set for 6:40 p.m. EST with the game televised on CBS.


Patriots vs. Chiefs Prediction

This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Chiefs after they faced the Patriots earlier this season. That Week 6 game was played in Foxborough with the Patriots pulling off a 43-40 win to hand Kansas City their first loss of the season. It was a 28-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal as time expired which sealed the win.

During the first meeting, Brady threw for 340 yards and one touchdown while Sony Michel was excellent on the ground, totaling 106 yards and two touchdowns. On the opposite side, the Patriots had no answer for electrifying wideout Tyreek Hill, who finished the game with seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns.

A lot of things are different from that first matchup, with the most obvious being that the Chiefs no longer have Kareem Hunt. But beyond that, Mahomes, who’s put together an MVP-caliber year now has a full regular season under his belt and looks more than ready to go toe-to-toe with Brady.

This game should be a high-scoring one, but the total of 59 points is a bit too high for me to touch. I do think the Chiefs as three-point favorites in Arrowhead is a nice spot. I’d feel comfortable taking Kansas City giving anything less than a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3

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