Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

The game of the year in college football was last week when Georgia took down Notre Dame. Though the line was convincing, a 16-point spread, in favor of the Bulldogs, Notre Dame held tough and fell by just six points.

This week, the Fighting Irish look to get back on track this weekend hosting the 18th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday afternoon in South Bend. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book, highly-touted in his own right, might not even be the best QB on the field on Saturday.

Virginia QB Bryce Perkins has been thoroughly impressive this season, throwing for 843 yards and six touchdowns through the Cavaliers’ first four games. He’s been a big reason to Virginia’s undefeated start to the season, but that might not last much longer with Notre Dame lying in wait.

Virginia Cavaliers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 3:30 p.m.

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana

Coverage: NBC

*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by BetOnline

Spread: Notre Dame (-11.5 at -110)
Over/Under: 48.5 (-110 either side)

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Virginia Cavaliers

Aside from Perkins, there’s not much to celebrate on the Virginia offense. The Cavaliers were sluggish last week against Old Dominion in a 28-17 victory, with Perkins only throwing for 175 yards. Where Perkins separates himself is his rushing ability. He won’t give you 100 yards on the ground, but he can extend drives, turn broken plays into positive yards, and confuse opposing defenses with option plays.

Over on the defensive side of the ball, Virginia has dominated opposing running backs this season. The Cavaliers rank 11th in FBS allowing just 75 yards rushing per game. In terms of total defense, Virginia sits 14th in FBS allowing only 263 yards of offense per game and only 4.14 yards per play.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish defense isn’t as strong as Virginia, ranking 60th in FBS allowing 361.7 yards per game. But where Notre Dame makes its living is on offense. Averaging nearly 445 yards per game, Notre Dame is led by quarterback Ian Book who has already thrown eight touchdown passes this year.

Averaging over 14 yards per completion, Book has utilized a ton of different receivers this year. Book has mostly gone to Chase Claypool, 15 times for 256 yards and two touchdowns.

While opponents have been able to move the ball against Notre Dame, converting third downs has been another story. The Irish have held opponents to just 31.8 percent on third downs but have only converted 28.6 percent themselves.

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Prediction

When the two teams met four seasons ago, Virginia was starting out on a 4-8 season yet still played a competitive game against the ninth-ranked Irish in 34-27 loss.

This year’s game could be equally close. But this time, the Cavaliers are for real. Virginia’s run-stuffing on defense is a big reason why they’re 4-0 and will apply pressure on Book for much of the game. The teams are trending under, but with a low total, this one could creep into the over.

Pick: With no chance of the O/U pushing, take the over by a slim margin. As for the spread, 11.5 is generous for Notre Dame, who may not even come out on top so go with UVA there. In a close game, take the Irish, 28-24.

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