The nation’s number one ranked team, Alabama, travels to College Station to face off with the 24th ranked Texas A&M Aggies in Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon. Can the Crimson Tide cover a hefty spread against an Aggies team that has dropped just three of their last 14 games ATS when playing at home? Let’s find out.
When and Where: Alabama vs. Texas A&M
- Location: Kyle Field (home of Nebraska)
- Date: 10/12/19
- Time: 3:30 pm EST
- Coverage: CBS
Follow the Heavy on Betting for all the latest betting news, odds, and picks
What’s there not to like about Alabama’s offense this season? Tua Tagovailoa has become somewhat of the Kobe Bryant of the college football world. It is so evidently clear that Tua is one of, if not the best at what he does. Yet, his run of prolonged greatness has at times gotten him overlooked in favor of the new, shinier, yet, likely less talented counterpart. Ala Steve Nash taking home two MVP trophies during Bryant’s prime.
Tua has tossed 5+ touchdowns in three consecutive games to his arsenal of pass catchers. Wideout Jerry Jeudy may be the top NFL prospect in this year’s coming draft. Yet, an argument could be made that he has been the second or even third best option within the Alabama passing game this season.
For all of Alabama’s offensive brilliance, their defense has surrendered a concerning average of 27 points in two of their last three games. The concerns don’t end there. Bama has been a horrendous bet dating back to the middle of last season. The Tide is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests.
Texas A&M Outlook
Texas A&M and their quarterback Kellen Mond have struggled to push the ball vertically down the field this season. The Aggies averaged just 11.53 yards per completion in 2019, ranked 86th in the country.
A&M will need to make a valiant effort to stick to the run game vs. Alabama, something they’ve failed to do this season. Over the past two weeks, their leading rusher Jacob Kibodi has averaged just 7.5 rushing attempts per game.
A&M has faired well ATS over their past three meetings against Alabama, finishing with an above .500 record.
Betting Odds & Trends
- Ohio State (-17) vs. Nebraska
- Over/Under: 66
*All odds are courtesy of OddsShark
- 6-0 SU in their last 6 games vs. Texas A&M.
- 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games when pegged as road favorites.
- Total has gone OVER in 7 of their last 10 games.
Texas A&M Trends
- 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
- 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played at home.
- 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 homes games vs. an opponent with a winning record.
Head to Head
- Alabama is 6-1 SU in the last 7 meetings.
- Texas A&M is 2-1 ATS in the last 3 meetings.
Pick: Take Alabama to Cover (-17)
The spread opened with Bama at -13 and has since shifted to the Crimson Tide -17. Still, it is just the third time since the start of the 2018 season that they have been favored by less than 20 points when versing a fellow SEC opponent.
Above we touched on how Alabama has been a better’s nightmare in terms of covering the spread. While it is true that Bama has covered just twice this season, that has a lot to do with how the team is perceived. Despite their struggles ATS, they’ve won every game this season by at least 24 points. Simple math and a major advantage in terms of talent makes Alabama (-17) the clear pick on Saturday.