The Broncos are coming off of yet another heartbreaking last-second loss, this time to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars were able to overcome a 14-point deficit to defeat the Broncos, 26-24, behind a 33-yard field goal by kicker Josh Lambo in Week 4. The loss kept the Broncos winless, the first time since 1999 they’ve been 0-4.
As far as the Chargers are concerned, they got back on a winning track over the hapless Miami Dolphins in a 30-10 beatdown. Los Angeles had lost their prior two games as they looked like the opposite of Super Bowl contenders in losses to the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans in Weeks 2 and 3.
As the Broncos look for their first win of the season and the Chargers look to solidify the expectations that they’re championship contenders, what can we expect from both teams this Sunday?
Game Info and Betting Line
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
October 6, 2019 at 4:05 pm ET
Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by BetOnline
Spread: Los Angeles (-6)
Over/Under: 44.5 (-110 either side)
The Broncos are in a rut and have lost their last eight consecutive games. Denver hasn’t won a game since Week 13 of last season. Despite their recent struggles, the Broncos defeated the Chargers, 23-22, in Los Angeles last season during a three-game winning streak.
While Denver has many issues, the biggest one has surprisingly been on defense. While they finally recorded their first sack of the season last week, they still have yet to force a turnover and they’re getting absolutely gashed on run defense.
The Broncos allowed Leonard Fournette to rush for a career-high 225 yards in last week’s loss. In their 60-year history, they’ve allowed just 15 running backs to run for at least 208 yards in a single game and three of them have happened in the past calendar year.
Denver ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt allowed. That is not good news considering Bradley Chubb is out for the season due to a torn ACL and the fact that the Broncos will have to match up with two legit running backs in Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers haven’t looked anything like the Super Bowl contenders they were projected to be, but the bright side is, it’s still early in the season.
It’s hard to get a gauge on how good the Chargers really are, but the good teams don’t lose against the bad ones. Los Angeles was able to pull off a convincing win on the road during a 1 pm ET game over the Dolphins and if they want to prove they’re legit, they need to continue that type of play against a bad team in the Broncos.
Head coach Anthony Lynn said he plans for Melvin Gordon to be a part of the game plan — unlike last week, when the veteran running back was active but didn’t record a single statistic.
Perhaps the biggest disparity between both teams comes on the offensive side of the ball, where the Chargers are clearly capable of big plays and the Broncos have to methodically move the ball down the field. Los Angeles averages 6.45 yards per play while Denver averages just 4.98.
That is something worth watching as this game can quickly turn into a blowout if the Broncos aren’t careful.
Trends and Prediction
- Denver are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver’s last 13 games.
- Denver are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games.
- Denver are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against LA Chargers.
- Denver are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers’ last 8 games.
- LA Chargers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers’ last 13 games against Denver.
- LA Chargers are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
- LA Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.
When looking at the trends, two things become clear — the Chargers will cover the 6.5-point spread and one should expect under on the over/under of 44.5.
While the Broncos have been competitive in all of their games last season, they’re playing with absolutely no mojo. With the season now lost at 0-4, we can expect things to get a lot worse in Week 5. Considering the Chargers have big playmakers in Keenan Allen, Gordon and Ekeler along with a big-time quarterback in Philip Rivers, this could very easily turn into a blowout as the Broncos’ 2019 season continues to get worse.
Pick: Chargers (-6.5), Under (44.5)