Ball State vs. Western Michigan Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Getty Western Michigan running back LeVante Bellamy

MACtion has returned. The annual midweek MAC football games feature two teams that are still in the hunt for a division title as the Cardinals and Broncos square off on Tuesday night at the Waldo Stadium.

Ball State (4-4) has had an upstart season under Mike Neu, who is in his fourth season as head coach of the program. With four victories already under his belt in 2019, Neu has matched his previous high watermark from each of the last three years. The signature win was a 52-14 victory over preseason MAC West favorite Toledo. The Cardinals need just two wins over their last two games to clinch a bowl bid for the first time since 2013

Western Michigan (5-4) has been nearly unbeatable at home this season, posting a 5-0 record at Waldo Stadium and winning those games by an average of 31.8 points. Western has been strong on both sides of the ball this season. The Broncos lead the MAC in scoring offense, averaging 36.0 points per game. They are also 2nd in the MAC in scoring defense, allowing just 25.8 points per game.

Western holds a 25-20 series edge over Ball State and the Broncos have won four out of the last five. Ball State won last year’s meeting 42-41 in overtime. a

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Game Details: Ball State at Western Michigan

Date: Tuesday, November 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Waldo Stadium (Kalamazoo, Michigan)
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Western Michigan -6.5
Total: 63

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Betting Trends

  • Ball State is 5-3 ATS this season
  • Western Michigan is 5-4 ATS this season
  • Ball State is 4-0 ATS in last 4 games against teams with a winning record
  • Ball State is 10-21 in last 31 conference games
  • Western Michigan is 6-0 ATS in last 6 home games
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings
  • Ball State is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers


Prediction & Picks

The key to Western Michigan’s offense is running back Levante Bellamy. The senior leads the conference with 1,055 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns this season.  I expect Bellamy to churn out yards and keep the Ball State defense on its heels. In last year’s game between these two programs, Bellamy torched the Cardinals for 213 yards and a touchdown. The spread might be a tad high here, but Western Michigan is undoubtedly the better team at home in a primetime spot. Back the Broncos.

PICK: Western Michigan -6.5 (-110)

The Broncos defense has exceeded expectations this season, especially at home, where Western has allowed just 64 points in five games at Waldo Stadium this season. Meanwhile, Ball State has been a ball-hawking unit defensively this season, racking up 19 takeaways. Cardinals QB Drew Plitt hasn’t posted huge numbers this year in his first season as the starter and it’s hard to see him outperforming the number in a spot on the road. There will definitely be points in this game, but I think the lean has to be to the under.

PICK: Under 63 (-110)


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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith