Colts vs. Texans Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick

Getty Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans

The AFC South could be decided on Thursday when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Houston Texans. Both teams enter the matchup with identical 6-4 records however Indy has the inside track with an unblemished 3-0 mark in the division. Jacoby Brissett had 326 yards passing and four touchdowns the last time these two teams met, a  30-23 Colts win back on October 20. Brissett returned from injury last Sunday as the Colts bounced back with a 33-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Deshaun Watson is coming off his worst performance of the season in a 41-7 drubbing against the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. Watson had 169 yards with one interception and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 4.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and predictions for this matchup between two AFC South rivals.  

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Colts vs. Texans Game Details

Date: Thursday, November 21
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)
Spread: Texans -3.5
Total: 44.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Movement

This line opened at Texans -5.5 and has been bet all the way down to Texans -3.5 at some books, according to The action, however, favors Houston with 67% of the bets and 79% of the money coming in on the Texans, according to The Action Network. This indicates a sharp reverse line movement favoring Indianapolis.

The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down slightly to 45.5 at most books, however, the action favors the other side with 70% of the bets and 83% of the money coming in on the over.

Betting Trends

  • Colts are 5-4-1 ATS this season
  • Texans are 5-5 ATS this season
  • Over is 6-4 in Colts games this season
  • Under is 6-4 in Texans games this season
  • Houston is 1-3 ATS at home this season

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Analysis & Picks

This line feels spot on. The sharps jumped on this number early and bet it all the way down to Colts +3.5. My initial lean was tail the steam and take the points, but at second glance, there are plenty of things to like about the Texans as a short home divisional favorite on a short week, mostly revolving around Deshaun Watson. I expect a bounceback from the MVP hopeful after a rough game last Sunday in Baltimore. Watson also gets the benefit of home cooking, with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games at NRG Stadium. DeAndre Hopkins has also been lights out in this matchup with 34 grabs for 434 yards and four touchdowns in his last five games against Indy. Houston’s pass defense is ranked 29th in the NFL, so there might be opportunities for Jacoby Brissett to keep things close, but be sure to check the status of wide receiver T.Y. Hilton before you place your bet. Hilton is questionable for the game with an injured calf. Marlon Mack will also not play due to a fractured hand. The injuries to Indy’s offense makes me lean towards the Texans and the under, but the pick I like most in this game is actually a prop. Hopkins has flat out owned the Colts over the past few years and his receptions prop seems very reasonable at just 6.5 considering he’s had at least seven grabs in each of the last six games. Tail Nuk and take the over.

PICK: DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (-152)

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