Even if Missouri defeated Arkansas on Black Friday in Fayetteville to earn their sixth victory of the season, the Tigers will still not be bowl eligible. Earlier this week, the NCAA denied Missouri’s appeal and upheld the program’s bowl ban for this season so the Tigers have nothing to play for except pride against the Razorbacks. Missouri’s season has totally fallen apart after a 5-1 start as the Tigers have dropped five straight games. Arkansas has had an equally forgettable campaign and has not won since a 55-34 victory over Colorado State back on September 14. The Razorbacks are the only team in the SEC without a conference win.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for this matchup between these SEC rivals.
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Missouri vs. Arkansas Game Details
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
This line opened at Missouri -13.5 and has been bet down slightly to Missouri -12.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The Tigers are receiving the majority of the action with 78% of the bets and 60% of the money, according to The Action Network. This indicates a slight reverse line move favoring the Razorbacks.
The total opened at 49 and has been bet down to 47 with 69% of the bets on the over and 98% of the money on the under.
- Missouri is 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS this season
- Arkansas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS this season
- Under is 9-2 in Missouri games this season
- Under is 6-5 in Arkansas games this season
- Missouri is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season
- Arkansas is 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS at home this season
- Under is 3-1 in Missouri road games this season
- Over is 4-3 in Arkansas home games this season
*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Pick
This game comes down to motivation. Arkansas has it, and Missouri doesn’t. Yes, the Razorbacks season went off the rails long ago, but there is no doubt interim head coach Barry Lunney Jr. wants to get one SEC victory under his belt before likely being replaced in the offseason. Chad Morris was fired two weeks ago after going just 4-18 since replacing Bret Bielema, and the Razorbacks have not played well since, including a 45-19 loss to Western Kentucky three weeks ago. Perhaps the only team playing worse than Arkansas during that stretch has been Missouri, who started 5-1 but have gone 0-5 since in what has become a lost season for head coach Barry Odom. I’m not sure how he has his guys up for this game as the Tigers have absolutely nothing to play for. Road conference games can be tricky, especially in the SEC and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Razorbacks kept this one close and maybe even stole a win in a merciful season finale for both teams. Take the points.
PICK: Arkansas +12.5 (-110)
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith