One of Week 13’s biggest matchups will take place at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) host the Oakland Raiders (6-5). The Chiefs are one game up on the Raiders in the standings, and if Oakland wins this one, they will move into a first-place tie with Andy Reid and company in the AFC West.
The Chiefs haven’t exactly lit Arrowhead up with fantastic play this season, however. They are 2-3 at home. Oakland, however, is 1-4 on the road, so something will have to give in this one. Who will come out on top? Here’s a game preview followed by relevant game trends and our predictions.
Patrick Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and had four touchdowns in the Chiefs’ Week 2 contest against the Raiders, and he could have a huge day again. Oakland is giving up 266.8 yards passing and over 25 points a game, and they’re coming off a game where Sam Darnold had a career day against them, so they’re likely reeling.
The Chiefs are 3-0 in the AFC West, and they have won three of their last five. Kansas City will be without running back Damien Williams, who will miss the game with a rib injury, but they are relatively healthy other than that.
The Chiefs are coming off their bye week, which Mahomes reportedly spent trying to improve his overall performance on the season. If Mahomes comes out focused and energized, it could be a long day for the Raiders.
Head coach Jon Gruden and his team are coming off a brutal 34-3 loss to the New York Jets, and they were bad on both sides of the ball. They will look to rebound in this game while also trying to seize their opportunity to move into a tie with the Chiefs if they win.
The Chiefs have the third-worst rush defense in the league, giving up 143.1 yards a game. Josh Jacobs could have himself a day after turning in a sub-40 yard performance last week against the Jets. Derek Carr will also have to play better than he did against the Jets. He had 127 yards and an interception with no touchdowns in that game, and he will need to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that is surrendering over 232 passing yards per contest.
Trent Brown is questionable for the Raiders, who also suffered a blow when tight end Hunter Renfrow went down for the season. Other than that, the Raiders are relatively healthy at the moment.
Trends, Predictions, & Pick:
Spread: Raiders +10.5
Over/Under 51 points
Odds Shark currently have the Chiefs winning by a projected score of 36-16, with the Chiefs covering the spread and the point total going under 51 points.
Some trends surrounding this game to consider courtesy of Odds Shark:
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland’s last 9 games.
- Oakland are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Kansas City.
- Oakland are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Kansas City.
- Oakland are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 19 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 8 games against Oakland.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games at home.
- Kansas City are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland.
We’re with Odds Shark on all but one thing here: We like the Chiefs to win at home, and they should cover the spread, but this game should go over 51 points. Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs will be able to score on this Kansas City defense, but Mahomes and his offense should be able to score more.
Final Prediction: Kansas City 35, Oakland 24