Saints vs. Falcons Prediction: Best Prop Bets For Thanksgiving Day

Getty Drew Brees and Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints

Since losing to the Atlanta Falcons three weeks ago, the New Orleans Saints have bounced back strong, winning two straight and putting themselves on the brink of clinching the NFC South title. Atlanta’s Jekyll and Hyde season continued after losing 35-22 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs last Sunday. The Falcons had previously won two straight, including a 26-9 road win over New Orleans where they sacked Drew Brees six times.

The Saints can clinch a playoff berth on Thursday night with a win over the Falcons. They would be the first team in the NFL to clinch a playoff berth this season.

For those of you that don’t want to bet on the outcome of the game, we break down the matchup and offer our best prop bets and analysis for Thursday’s NFC South matchup between the Saints and Falcons.

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Saints vs. Falcons Game Details

Date: Thursday, November 28
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, Georgia)
Spread: Falcons -6.5
Total: 48.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Analysis & Prop Bets

Michael Thomas had 13 receptions on 14 targets when these teams played three weeks ago in New Orleans. I can’t imagine that number changes much on Thursday night against the Falcons’ 27th-ranked pass defense. Thomas goes off for another huge game and covers this inflated receptions prop.

PICK: Michael Thomas over 9.5 receptions (+108)

Alvin Kamara has shown signs of wearing down this season as his workload has steadily decreased. However, a rushing yards prop of 41.5 seems very low for someone with Kamara’s skill set. He has exceeded that total in his last two games. Kamara had just four carries on 24 yards when the Saints and Falcons played three weeks ago but New Orleans was behind for most of the game and was forced to pass.

PICK: Alvin Kamara over 41.5 rushing yards (-112)

Drew Brees is basically even money to throw an interception in this game. The Falcons have recorded 15 picks this season and Brees has thrown two picks in his four games since returning from injury. It’s a coinflip but that’s what Thanksgiving football is for right? Brees throws at least one interception on the road.

PICK: Drew Brees to throw an interception (-112)

The Falcons defensive line exploded for six sacks of Drew Brees when these teams last faced each other three weeks ago. The sack total for Thursday’s rematch is 4.5 on Bet365 and it feels like a must-play to the over.

PICK: Total sacks over 4.5 (-138)

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith