Thunder vs. Clippers Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

For the second Monday in a row, one of the Clippers’ top players will be going against a team for whom he starred within the past seven months. Last time, it was Kawhi Leonard facing the Raptors. This time, it’s Paul George facing the Thunder.

George made his season debut two games ago after having offseason surgery on both shoulders and his numbers have been a bit ridiculous. He’s shooting 58.8 percent from the field and 56.3 percent from the 3-point line and has made 21 straight free-throws. That kind of efficiency has led him to average 35.0 points in 22.0 minutes per game.

George has yet to play with Leonard, who has been out with a knee injury for the past two games. He is expected to play Monday.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are undergoing a transition period in which they’ve fought to remain competitive, but at 5-7, are still figuring out their identity. They’re well-stocked with former Clippers, including point guards Chris Paul, who was with the team from 2011-12 through 2016-17, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the prized prospect the Thunder got back in the trade for George. Danilo Gallinari was also sent to OKC from the Clippers in the deal.

Neither team has established much consistency. The Clippers blew out the Hawks on Saturday after dropping two straight games to Houston and New Orleans and the Thunder have yet to win a road game in four tries.

Thunder vs. Clippers Preview

 

It’s hard to figure how the Thunder can match up with George and Leonard on the perimeter because they just don’t have the defenders with the kind of length and strength to keep up.

With Lou Williams, the Clippers are already a team heavy on the pick-and-roll, third in the league in points scored off the play at 26.0 per game. But adding George and Leonard, two of the best PNR forwards in the NBA, is only going to allow them to hammer the play more. Oklahoma City has not been very effective at corralling PNRs—the Thunder give up the ninth-most pick-and-roll ballhandler points in the league, 20.5 points per game.

The Thunder are a good pick-and-roll team, too, and the Clippers are even worse than OKC at defending it—they yield 0.93 points per possession, 27^th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the play.  Each team has been good from the 3-point line lately so if there is a good play on this game, it starts with the over (221.5 points in this case).

The little things the Clippers do will probably add up to a cover in this one for L.A. The Clips are an excellent offensive-rounding team (24.7 percent, No. 2 in the NBA) while the Thunder struggle on the boards, ranked 20^th in defensive rebounding percentage at 76.6 percent.

The Clippers, too, are No. 5 in points off turnovers this year, 19.8 per game, while the Thunder are middle-of-the-pack with 15.8 turnovers per game. The line (9.5 points according to Fanduel.com) is significant, especially with the Thunder coming off a huge win over the Sixers on Friday. But with George healthy, the Clippers have too much firepower.

Thunder vs. Clippers Pick & Prediction

 

PICK: Clippers, -9.5

OVER: 221.5

SCORE PREDICTION: Clippers, 119-107

 

READ MORE: Andre Iguodala, J.R. Smith Among Lakers’ Options to Fix Shooting Woes

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