Cowboys vs. Bears Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick

Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott

Getty Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys each share identical 6-6 records as they get ready for a crucial Thursday night showdown at Soldier Field. The record is the only thing these two teams have in common as Dallas has a much more realistic chance of making the postseason due to the struggles of the NFC East. The Cowboys have a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles with four games to play. Meanwhile, the Bears are two games back of the Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC and three back of the Green Bay Packers for first place in the division.

Dallas has had one week off since their embarrassing 26-15 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving Day. The Bears also played on Thanksgiving and came from behind to defeat the Detroit Lions 24-20. If the Cowboys win out, they will be the NFC East champions for the third time in the last four years. The Bears need to win out and hope the Vikings and Packers stumble down the stretch in order to sneak into the postseason.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Cowboys a 57.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Thursday’s matchup between the Cowboys and Bears.

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Cowboys vs. Bears Game Details

Date: Thursday, December 5
Time: 8:20 pm
Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, Illinois)
TV: FOX
Spread: Cowboys -3
Total: 42.5

*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network


Line Movement

This line opened at Cowboys -3 and has mostly stayed here. The action is heavily favoring the road favorite with Dallas receiving a large majority of the bets and money. On Wednesday, the juice began to favor the Bears as three-point home underdogs and could drop to Bears +2.5 by game time on Thursday.

The total is hovering between 42.5 and 43 at most books with the majority of the bets and money coming on the under.


Betting Trends

  • Cowboys are 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS this season
  • Bears are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS this season
  • Over is 7-5 in Cowboys games this season
  • Under is 8-4 in Bears games this season

Analysis & Picks

The Cowboys have the number one offense in the NFL gaining 432.8 yards per game and Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 3,788 passing yards this season, but for some reason, it feels like the Dallas offense has been struggling. Maybe that’s because it has. The Cowboys have been unable to get over the hump in back-to-back weeks against tough AFC East opponents and Prescott repeatedly came up empty in the red zone. Most are blaming head coach Jason Garrett, who is squarely on the hot seat with owner Jerry Jones. Whoever is to blame, Dallas is not playing as well as their numbers indicate, and that’s a problem when you are traveling on a short week against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Chicago ranks seventh overall allowing 319.7 yards per game including less than 100 on the ground. I think Chicago takes advantage of their home field and Dallas struggles to move the ball. Mithcell Trubisky threw for a season-high 338 yards in the win over Detroit last Thursday. Dallas is stout against the pass yielding just 215.2 yards per game but are still banged up on defense and will be without safety Jeff Heath and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch on Thursday. I think this line could move, so if you like the Beras, bet it now, as it could be down to 2.5 by game time.

PICK: Bears +3 (-110)


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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith