Can Mostert keep the magic going in Week 16 as you try to stake your claim for a league championship? Let’s take a look.
Follow the Heavy on Fantasy & Betting for all the latest betting news, odds, and picks
Raheem Mostert’s Fantasy Outlook vs. Los Angeles Rams
After weeks of musical chairs in the San Francisco 49ers backfield, the team has finally seemed to settle in on Raheem Mostert as their featured running back. With that said, that doesn’t mean that Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida will fall by the wayside.
While the two offer little fantasy value of their own at the moment, their presence has always led to the belief that they will slightly hinder Mostert’s upside. This is backed by the fact that Mostert has carried the ball more than 10 times just twice since Week 4. However, those two times have come within the past three weeks, as Mostert begins to silence those beliefs.
Since Week 12, Mostert has out-attempted the next closest 49ers RB 43-12. He’s also currently riding a four-game streak of finding the end zone. Not bad for a guy who had just one rushing touchdown all season prior to this run. Those four TDs have come over Mostert’s past 49 carries, meaning he’s scored a touchdown every 12.2 touches since Week 12, the second-best TD per touch average amongst qualifying ball carriers according to Yahoo.
With that said, Mostert did see a major decrease in efficiency a week ago, something that his game has been built off of in recent years. Heading into Week 15, Mostert led all NFL RBs in yards per carry since 2018. However, Mostert saw his stellar rushing average come to a screeching halt a week ago, as he dipped below the 4.0 ypc threshold for the first time all season where he’s carried the ball at least nine times.
Mostert fantasy owners are likely drooling at the prospect of taking on the Rams this week following them surrendering, not one, but two 100-yard rushers a week ago. However, I’d be careful what you wish for. Last Week’s Rams game was an odd one, to say the least, and doesn’t best showcase the type of defense Los Angeles has been putting on display for the better part of the season.
From Week 6 through Week 14, the Rams held all but two starting running backs to 3.8 ypc or fewer, and all but three to 2.7 ypc of fewer. From Week 7 through Week 14, the Rams allowed just one rushing touchdown to an opposing running back.
Should You Start or Sit Raheem Mostert in Week 16?
Mostert offers very little in the passing game, as he’s hauled in more than two receptions just twice in his now five-year career. The fact that the 49ers RBs attempted 35 carries against LA in their previous matchup this year, along with San Fran’s apparent commitment to the former Purdue Boilermaker as their workhorse back, should be enough to warrant a place in your lineup, albeit not as an RB1/RB2 option.
Mostert is a touchdown-dependent flex play vs. a Rams defense who had a hiccup performance a week ago, but otherwise has been stout against the run for the majority of this season.
- *Check out our Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Ems to further optimize your lineups
- Start-Sit [ QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEF | Ks]