Packers vs. 49ers Prediction: How We’re Betting the NFC Championship Game

Aaron Rodgers Comments on LaFleur

Getty GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 15: head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers discusses with Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers during warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 15, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

The San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium.

We build the blueprint for betting this marquee matchup on the NFL football odds board Sunday, from our favorite bets for the side and total to some quick-paying picks and prop plays.

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Packers vs. 49ers Game Details

Date: Sunday, January 18
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
49ers -7.5
Total: 46.5

*All lines & odds courtesy of FanDuel

Quick Hitter

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are back in the NFC title game for the first time since 2016 against the 49ers, who are making their first appearance on championship Sunday since 2013 under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Rodgers will be playing in his fourth NFC Championship Game and 19th postseason game overall.

Green Bay and San Francisco are third and fourth, respectively, in first-quarter scoring averaging a  combined 13.2 points. Both teams also hit the first quarter over in their divisional-round matchup last week.

Prediction: First Quarter Over 9.5

First Half

The Packers got off to a fast start last Sunday against the Seahawks scoring 21 points in the first half. The 49ers used more of a balanced attack, scoring 14 points in the first half and 13 in the second half. San Francisco’s defense was able to shutout the Vikings over the final 30 minutes.

The Niners have been dominant on both sides of the ball at home this season. San Francisco has a plus-7.4 points per game scoring margin in the first half of home games, far better than Green Bay’s minus-2.7 points per game margin in road games. However, we still think there is value on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to steal some early momentum.

Prediction: First-Half Packers +4.5

Team/Player Prop

Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his best games of the season with 243 passing yards in the win over the Seahawks. The oddsmakers followed that up by posting a passing yards total of 238.5 for Sunday’s title game in San Francisco, a number we think is a tad too high.

Aaron Rodgers has not had his best year from a statistical standpoint, throwing for just 4,003 yards, his fewest in a full season since 2015. Rodgers is also ranked 17th out of 32 qualifiers in yards per attempt this season (7.0).

The 49ers are ranked second in defensive pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. San Francisco held the Vikings offense scoreless in the second half of Sunday’s win and allowed just 172 passing yards from Kirk Cousins.

Prediction: Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers Under 238.5

Total Bet

The last time these teams played, the final score fell right near this week’s total, with the 49ers trouncing the Packers 37-8. While we don’t expect things to be that lopsided, it is worth noting that the San Francisco defense held the Green Bay offense to just 198 total yards despite running 70 plays in the game (2.8 yards per play).

The 49ers defense is allowing just 147 yards and 10 points per game in the postseason. The under is 3-1 in games this season where the Packers have been a road underdog.

Prediction: Under 46.5

Spread Bet

The 49ers are the public side in this matchup, receiving over half of the bets and money according to the Action Network however the Packers have been the more profitable side this season going 11-6 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS as an underdog.

We trust Green Bay head coach Matt LaFluer to make the necessary adjustment and avoid a repeat of the disaster by the bay earlier this season. With Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball of the season, we think the Packers have value both on the spread and the moneyline.

Prediction: Packers +7

READ NEXTTitans vs. Chiefs Prediction: How We’re Betting the AFC Championship Game

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith