Getty Cardinals QB Kyler Murray scrambles away from Bears defenders on December 5.
The stage is set for Kyler Murray to make an MVP statement on Monday Night Football.
Despite missing three games with an ankle injury, the Arizona Cardinals quarterback has the third-highest odds to win the NFL’s top individual award this season, according to BetMGM.
For Murray (+900) to close the gap on Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (+150) and Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+550), NFL writers and analysts agree he needs to have a huge game and lead his team to victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, December 13.
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Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said Murray is used to big moments and generally thrives in them. Kingsbury cited Murray’s monster 478-yard, four-touchdown performance vs. West Virginia during his Heisman Trophy-winning season at Oklahoma.
The Sooners’ 59-56 victory on November 23, 2018, also was in prime time on ESPN.
“He’s probably more familiar with that type of scenario than I am,” Kingsbury said. “He won the Heisman, and I remember he had a huge game against West Virginia on national TV up there and played great, had 500 yards or something like that.
“When you have those moments, it definitely moves the meter. I think you’ve seen that throughout the season with different names that have been mentioned for that award. It kind of comes with the big performances and big showcase games. I’m sure he’ll go out and do what he does every week and try to play to the best of his ability.”
Murray told reporters he’s honored to be listed among the top candidates for MVP, but he’s more focused on team goals. When the team does well, individual awards often follow, he said.
“We’ve been good as a team, won as a team. Usually every guy gets what they deserve on the team,” Murray said.
“I’ve been a part of some great teams in my football career and a lot of guys have won awards, so I believe that it’s true. As far as being mentioned with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, those types of guys, those [are] guys you look up to and the best to play the game. It’s definitely an honor, and hopefully we can keep playing at a high level.”
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Murray Needs ‘Jaw-Dropping’ Final Five Games
The Athletic’s Lindsay Jones described the Cardinals’ Week 14 showdown with the Rams as Murray’s “MVP moment.”
“If the Cardinals quarterback is going to push his way back into the race for the NFL’s most prestigious individual honor, he needs jaw-dropping performances in Arizona’s final five games, starting Monday night against the Rams,” Jones wrote.
The stats don’t lie, she continued:
There is a strong statistical argument that Murray is the NFL’s most efficient quarterback this season and also its most explosive. He’s leading the NFL in key efficiency metrics, like completion percentage and expected points added per dropback (EPA), and also is pushing the ball downfield and making aggressive throws beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s borne out through metrics as well, as he leads the league in yards per attempt (8.85).
But Murray’s passing totals — including yards and touchdowns — are where the QB’s missed three games make catching Brady tricky. Brady leads the NFL in passing TDs with 36, while Murray ranks 12th with 19.
“He’ll need several multiple-touchdown games and for Brady to fall off his touchdown pace to stay in MVP contention,” according to Jones.
Murray also needs to continue to win. Arizona enters the Monday night matchup with the Rams with an NFL-best 10-2 record. And as Jones notes, “the MVP award, fairly or not, often goes to the best player on the best team.”
That said, a QB winning MVP after missing three games has happened before, as Jones points out:
Murray is the intriguing new name in the discussion, but he’ll have to overcome the loss of three games to injury to earn the award. Joe Montana, in 1989, was the last QB to win league MVP with a three-game absence.
Can Kyler Murray climb back into the MVP race? He’ll need an MVP moment, and it would need to start tonight against the Rams. Before MNF, I look at Murray’s MVP case | @TheAthletic
‘A Different Team with Kyler’
Former Cardinals QB Kurt Warner said he believes Murray has made a solid case for MVP and could still win the award with a strong finish in Arizona’s final five games.
“Everything he’s done and with his team being the No. 1 team in the league … to me, there’s no argument if you gave him MVP. I don’t think anybody’s going to argue with that,” Warner told The Athletic. “They can win without Kyler. But to me, they’re a different team with Kyler. So he’s valuable in his own way and in unique ways. That makes him the MVP on their team.”
With his 11-for-15 passing performance on a cold, wet day in Chicago, Murray matched Warner for most games completing 70% or more passes in franchise history with 15. He’s also tied Warner’s team record of five games with a passer rating of 120 or higher in a single season.
And Murray is just getting started, Warner said.
“He’s gifted in all the things that you look for athletically from a quarterback. And the biggest thing was him continuing to learn how to play the position and play within the pocket, know what he’s looking at, get through his progressions and not always rely on athleticism to bail him out,” he said.
“Whether that’s making the great throw or that’s running around in the pocket and buying time, then making the throw — his ability to play inside the pocket … and make those different throws on schedule, that’s where I continue to see him growing. And so the beautiful thing is that every year you’ve seen growth.”
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