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Flying in the face of conventional wisdom, Pro Football Focus has projected the Dallas Cowboys will retain starting safety Xavier Woods with a four-year free-agent contract.
Ranked No. 50 on PFF’s list of the top 100 unsigned NFL players, Woods is forecast to net a $25 million extension — averaging $6.25 million annually — when the market opens next month.
Woods entered the league as a versatile safety with slot coverage skills and a sixth-round draft steal as he’s developed into a solid free safety. He ranks in the middle of the pack from a coverage standpoint when lined up deep, but he’s been excellent when lined up closer to the line of scrimmage, making him a good fit for teams that play with interchangeable safeties. He can still dabble in the slot at times, and the Cowboys are doing more of that in 2020, but it hasn’t been Woods’ strong suit to this point in his NFL career. His four season grades have ranged from 65.0 to 73.0.
Contract Analysis: This much talent at one position could have the effect of suppressing contracts for everyone. Or, particularly because of the salary cap situation in 2021, it could have the effect of eroding the middle-tier market. Teams may decide that unless they can land a premier free safety who is an impact player, they might as well just go to the bargain bin and sign a cheap veteran. For this reason, Woods’ next contract could truly fall within a very wide range.
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Worthy of New Pact?
A 2017 sixth-round pick, Woods has become a familiar face in Dallas’ back end, starting 48 games since entering the league. He’s collected 172 solo tackles, 18 pass breakups, and five interceptions over that span, more impactful near the line of scrimmage than away from it.
Although never a true difference-maker, Woods at least displayed a nose for the ball … which seemed to disappear in 2020. The 25-year-old made 72 total tackles, with no forced fumbles or picks, in 15 starts as the Cowboys allowed a franchise-record 473 points en route to a bitterly disappointing 6-10 record.
Incredibly, amidst the face-palming futility, Woods copped to “a lack” of effort and argued it’s “not possible” to go “full speed” every snap, every game.
“Our effort’s been good. I mean on certain plays some guys, I mean me included, there may be a lack but overall the effort is there,” he said in October. “I mean you don’t expect, we’re in the NFL, you don’t expect guys (to go) full speed for 70 plays. That’s not possible. We’re going to push as hard as we can.”
Dallas ranked 31st against the run and 28th in scoring. Surprisingly, its secondary (11th) was the strongest suit, but even that was exploited. Ask fellow veteran safety Darian Thompson, who was benched midseason in favor of 2019 sixth-rounder Donovan Wilson.
The team is expected to fortify the position via free agency and April’s draft; they’ve already been linked to San Francisco’s Jaquiski Tartt and Atlanta’s Keanu Neal, who previously was coached by new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
It’s possible the Cowboys extend an offer to Woods for the sake of continuity and/or depth. But it’s just as possible the brain trust allows a replacement-level player to hit the bricks and devotes significant resources into an upgrade.
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Projection for Chido
The No. 42 free agent on PFF’s list, Cowboys cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is also expected to remain with the organization that drafted him. The estimated terms: three years, $27 million overall and $15.5 million guaranteed ($10 million fully guaranteed at signing).
After earning a coverage grade that ranks right in the middle of the league’s corners since 2017, Awuzie epitomizes the league-average cornerback. He’s done his best work in zone coverage, ranking in the 61st percentile in PFF grade, but he’s in just the 35th percentile in single coverage. That matches our scouting report of Awuzie coming out of college, where he looked like an excellent fit in a zone scheme, and that’s likely his best bet once again as he hits free agency.
Contract Analysis: The Cowboys prioritized Dontari Poe, Everson Griffen and Gerald McCoy over retaining CB Byron Jones this past offseason. All three players are no longer on the roster, and Dallas has one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Dallas must now realize they have to invest in coverage to get this unit back on track, just like Miami did with Byron Jones.
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Follow Zack Kelberman on Twitter: @KelbermanNFL