Getty James Wiseman looks to box out in a game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Golden State Warriors had what appeared to be a golden ticket midway through the NBA season, a protected first-round pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves from last year’s D’Angelo Russell trade that seemed to have a strong chance at giving them a generational talent.
Now, after a fast-improving Timberwolves team ended the season on a hot streak, the Warriors are left with what could be a mixed bag and potential regrets about not trading in the pick for an immediate impact player.
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Pick Lost Significant Value
Minnesota remained in last place for most of the now-passed NBA season, which meant that their top-three protected pick had a roughly 60 percent chance of going to the Warriors as either the No. 4 or No. 5 overall pick. But the T-Wolves ended the season by going 8-7 in their final 15 games, allowing them to finish outside the five worst records in the league and drastically changing what could belong to the Warriors.
As Brian Witt of NBC Sports Bay Area noted, Minnesota is slotted sixth in the draft lottery and a higher chance that the pick will convey to the Warriors — but also a greater chance that it falls outside the top five.
As Witt noted, the pick cannot land at No. 5 overall, and would go back to Minnesota if it were in the top three. That leaves a 9.6 percent chance that the Warriors get the No. 4 pick. There is a 27.6 percent chance that the pick lands in the top three, which means it will go to the Warriors as an unprotected 2022 first-rounder. As Witt noted, that could be the best scenario for the Warriors if they can’t beat the odds and get the No. 4 pick.
The first five picks of the 2021 draft are expected to be, in some order, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, all of which would have had a great chance at being the first overall pick a year ago. After those five, though, there is a wide consensus that there is a significant drop-off in talent, and basically no consensus whatsoever on which prospect should go sixth.
Warriors May Regret Holding Onto Pick
If the pick were to convey to 2022, the Warriors could end up losing out on a valuable asset. The Timberwolves showed steady and at times significant improvement as the season went on, at one point beating the Western Conference-leading Utah Jazz in back-to-back games. There would be no guarantee that the pick falls in the lottery again next season.
So close, and yet so far.
Here’s where the first-round pick owed to the Warriors by the T-Wolves is slotted heading into the draft lottery 👀
The Warriors could have had a chance to flip the Minnesota pick for a more immediate boost. At the trade deadline, Golden State was connected to a number of high-profile targets including Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon, but was not willing to part with the pick, seen as the team’s strongest asset. After the deadline passed, Warriors general manager Bob Myers said it was too difficult to part with the pick.
“You gotta be open to anything,” Myers said, via NBC Sports Bay Area. “But it would take a lot to part with something like that. You don’t ever say never. We don’t even know if we’ll get it — I guess we’ll find out at the lottery whenever that date is set. It has value in trade and it has value by itself. But you and I and everybody will know a ton more when we know what it is or if we get it.”
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