Getty Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with teammate Davante Adams #17 following their touchdown completion during the first quarter of their game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field on December 06, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
The No. 2 seed in the NFC is now Green Bay’s to lose.
The Packers (9-3) held on for a 30-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1) on Sunday afternoon and can now ensure at least the No. 2 seed in their conference if they win out in their final four games of the season, thanks to the Seattle Seahawks (8-4) falling to the New York Giants at home earlier in the night.
The Packers can also clinch the NFC North title for a second straight year as early as next week with a three-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings (6-6). Two more wins will seal the deal no matter what, but the Packers can also lock up the divisional race next Sunday if they beat the Detroit Lions and the Vikings lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here’s a breakdown of the current NFC playoff picture as it pertains to the Packers along with an updated look at Green Bay’s playoff scenarios moving forward:
*Note: All data and percentages included here are courtesy of Playoff Status.
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NFC Playoff Picture After Week 13’s Games
With four games left to play, the New Orleans Saints (10-2) are the only team in the NFC to have clinched a playoff berth and have complete control over the No. 1 seed along with its coveted first-round bye. If they can win out, the top seeding belongs to them regardless of what the Packers do behind them.
The Saints, however, will have to go through the Kansas City Chiefs before closing out the regular season. Losing even one game and falling into a tie with the Packers would drop them to the No. 2 seed, as Green Bay came away from New Orleans with a 37-30 victory back in Week 3 and holds the tiebreaker.
The same margin for error exists for the Packers with a pair of western teams threatening to overtake them. The Los Angeles Rams (8-4) moved into first place in the NFC West following the Seahawks’ misstep on Sunday, but more winning for either of them will keep the heat on the Packers not to slip up down the stretch.
The No. 4 seed breaks down a little neater. The Giants (5-7) are in control of their destiny and could take a full-game lead in the NFC East if Washington (4-7) falls to Pittsburgh on Monday; however, they beat Washington in both matchups this season and would still win the division even if both of their records matched at the end of Week 17.
The current wild-card picture would have the Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) and Vikings rounding out the seven playoff teams, but the Arizona Cardinals (6-6) and San Francisco 49ers (5-6; plays on Monday) are also teams within reach.
What Playoff Scenarios Remain for Packers?
The Packers would have to experience a grand collapse in order to miss the playoffs now with less than a 1% chance of missing out after their Week 13 win. There are even scenarios where they could lose all four of their remaining games and still be crowned division champions, so getting in shouldn’t be a problem.
The real question is where will they end up.
The Packers are still favored (38% chance) to finish as the No. 3 seed, but they are nearly just as likely to finish one spot ahead at No. 2 (35%). They also have a 26% chance to lock down the first-round bye and the top seed even though at least one Saints loss would be necessary for them to pull it off.
It wouldn’t be impossible for the Packers to finish below the No. 3 seed, but it would take a serious drought of winning and some other movements behind them for it to happen.
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