Getty Cheiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (left) and Bills QB Josh Allen (right).
For the first time in recent memory, the NFL MVP race appears as wide open as ever as the regular season rounds into its final three weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow elevated his standing in the conversation, after slaying seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady in Tampa in Week 15. Jalen Hurts has guided the Philadelphia Eagles to the best record in the NFL, with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in sight. Meanwhile, Josh Allen has proven instrumental to the Buffalo Bills‘ consistent dominance over the AFC. And Patrick Mahomes happens to be in the midst of his most statistically impressive season of an overwhelmingly impressive career. All four quarterbacks have a legitimate case to walk away with the award at the season’s end.
The award has been won by a quarterback every season since running back Adrian Peterson’s win in 2012, and 19 times since the turn of the century.
Despite voters selecting this year’s winner by ranked-choice voting of their top-5 choices, it seems inevitable a quarterback will walk away with the award for an 11th straight season.
But, which one?
And, to further the value of the best player at the most important position in sports, who would NFL coaches, executives and scouts prefer to build their team around if they had their pick of this year’s MVP-worthy quarterbacks?
“It’s easy, it’s Patrick Mahomes,” an NFC defensive coach told Heavy would be his choice. “He’s just the total package, and the toughest to defend.”
Mahomes was a nearly unanimous selection of those surveyed, and it’s easy to see why.
Despite losing All-Pro game-changing wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Mahomes enters Week 16 completing a career-best 67.4% of his passes for 4,496 yards with 35 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions while leading the 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Just as there is a case for every quarterback not named Mahomes to win this year’s MVP, there are arguments to be made against selecting any of them to start a franchise around, over the Chiefs’ star.
“With Josh Allen, I worry about longevity,” an AFC scouting director told Heavy. “He takes too many hits. Joe Burrow is good, but needs players around him. Jalen Hurts is a distant four but also needs players around him.”
Here’s a sampling of who NFL coaches, scouts, and executives would build their team around if given their pick of this year’s potential MVP quarterbacks:
NFC Personnel Executive
“Joe Burrow. He’s a leader, has the toughness you look for in the position, but most importantly, the dude never panics.”
NFL Quarterbacks Coach
“In order, it would be Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and then Hurts. Mahomes gets the edge for me because he’s won a Super Bowl and been on that stage twice. Big moments in the postseason don’t overwhelm him.”
AFC Scout
“Mahomes would be my first choice. He’s physically AND mentally better than anyone else in the league. He can anything anyone on the list can do, but they can’t do what he does physically and mentally.”
AFC Personnel Executive
“My pick is Joe Burrow. Simply because of his leadership and the connection he has with his teammates. Plus, he has accuracy and is subtly athletic.”
NFL Offensive Coordinator
“Patrick Mahomes … He has elite combination of arm talent and escapability.”
AFC Scouting Director
“Mahomes. He’s a playmaker, regardless of who’s around him.”
Week 16 NFL Power Rankings
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-1)
- Cincinnati Bengals (10-4)
- Buffalo Bills (11-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Minnesota Vikings (11-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
- Detroit Lions (7-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
- New York Giants (8-5-1)
Quote of the Week: Chandler Jones on Outrageous Game-Ending TD
“Sure enough, I saw Jakobi Meyers kinda look back at Mac Jones, the quarterback. He was standing in the middle of the field. I literally just jumped up when I saw the ball coming, intended for Mac. Mac was kind of standing there, looking at me with big eyes. I literally just jumped up and intercepted it. I just gave Mac a nice stiff arm with my right hand. The rest was history.” – Chandler Jones, via Peter King’s Football Morning in America
One week before the anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, Chandler Jones offered the Farcical Fumble Return in Week 15, on one of the more improbable touchdowns you’ll ever see.
Beyond turning Jakobi Meyers into a meme Hall of Famer, and saving the Las Vegas Raiders from the colossal embarrassment of a blowing fifth double-digit lead of the season, Jones’ outrageous game-winning touchdown proved a cautionary tale to any player on every team across the league against hook and lateraling the football in an end-of-game situation. Especially one that is tied.
An underrated moment, though, was Jones’ stiff arm of Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, during his dash for the end zone. While Jones’ return might not carry the weight of the Immaculate reception, that lifted the Steelers into the AFC Championship Game, it will prove just as memorable as any touchdown you’ll see.
Final Thought
The Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly look like the team to beat in the AFC South.
Following Sunday’s 40-34 come-from-behind overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville is just one game back of the Tennessee Titans for the division lead, but getting some of the most consistently dominant quarterback play of any team across the league over the past month and seem to be peaking at the right time.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 27-of-42 passes for 318 yards with 4 touchdowns to 1 interception against the Cowboys, continuing a hot streak that has reflected much of the pre-draft hype that propelled the former Clemson star to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Through the month of December, Lawrence has completed 64.3% of his passes for 865 yards with 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception through those three games. Lawrence has guided the Jaguars to three victories in the last four games, picking off the Titans, Cowboys and Ravens over that span. All three teams are currently safely inside the playoff race.
However, the Jaguars’ success has been driven by far more than elite quarterback play from an elite quarterback prospect.
Entering Week 16, Jacksonville boasts the 10th-best point differential in the NFL, at +0.4, a dramatic uptick from 2021’s woeful and league-worst -12.0.
It really is remarkable what an impact competent coaching, and an adult in the room to shepherd Lawrence’s development, has been. The contrast between the calm of Doug Pederson’s presence and chaos of Urban Meyer’s lone NFL season has been stark.
If the Jaguars can hold serve over the next two weeks, at the Jets and at the Texans, the regular season finale on Jan. 8 in DUUVAL against the Titans has the potential to be a de-facto win-and-in playoff game for Lawrence and company.
Lawrence set the table for Week 18 to carry massive postseason implications, by passing for a career-high 368 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Titans in Week 14. The Jaguars, and their young quarterback alike, have come of age over the past month. Valuable postseason experience with a head coach who boasts a Super Bowl-winning pedigree is now in sight.
In 2021, you’ll recall, the Jaguars torpedoed Carson Wentz and the division rival Colts’ playoff aspirations in Week 18, but this year just may have the opportunity to propel themselves into the postseason for the first time since 2017.
Heavy In The Trenches is a weekly Wednesday column by Heavy’s NFL insider Matt Lombardo, bringing you insight on the latest storylines and rumblings around the league. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattLombardoNFL.