Getty Cameron Johnson (right) of the Phoenix Suns.
At first blush, it seems like a crazy NBA concept. The Heat, coming off a year in which guard Tyler Herro scored 20.7 points per game, mostly off the bench to win Sixth Man of the Year, are not much inclined to swap way the 22-year-old star for a guy who is four years older and averaged 12.5 points last season, his first year as a double-digit scorer.
But that’s the argument made by the venerable NBA site TrueHoop whose former coach/contributor David Thorpe (Udonis Haslem is among his former pupils) argues that a trade sending Herro to Phoenix for forward Cam Johnson makes good sense on both ends.
Johnson is not the scorer Herro is, of course, and he is not the backup ballhandler Herro has been off the bench. But the Heat badly need frontcourt help, and Johnson is the kind of sweet-shooting, versatile 3-and-D forward the Heat just lost when P.J. Tucker signed with Philadelphia. Johnson shares a few attributes with Tucker, who remains a better defender. Johnson, though is a more productive shooter and much better overall athlete.
Herro would be missed but, the argument goes, in terms of fit within the roster, Johnson would be very much welcomed.
CAM JOHNSON DUNKS ON PJ TUCKER 🤯
(via @NBATV)
Cam Johnson Could Be More Valuable Than Tyler Herro
Johnson’s efficiency numbers certainly show his value, even if his stats are not eye-popping. He had a very good net rating of plus-6.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com stats. Herro’s too, was good, at 5.3 points per 100 possession. Johnson’s win shares—a stat that serves as an estimate of the number of wins a player creates—was 5.6, well ahead of the 3.8 from Herro.
Wrote Thorpe:
Though four years older than Herro, Johnson went two picks ahead of him in 2019. An excellent defender who is improving, Johnson also hit 39 percent of his 3s in his first three seasons and 41 percent in the past two postseasons. Like Herro, he has been a solid role player on one of the league’s elite teams. He is not the scorer or shot creator Herro is, and that matters to Miami; yet Johnson did score 12 points a game on the second unit of a very balanced offense. He should get more 3-point looks in Miami, meaning he’d fill some of the 3-and-D void from Tucker’s departure.
Thorpe added that trading away Herro also acts as a doubling-down on the bet the Heat made this summer on Victor Oladipo, the veteran guard who was kept on board with a two-year, $18 million contract from the Heat, with a player option for next year. Oladipo suffered injuries to his knee and quad, playing just 12 games for Miami since he was acquired in the spring of 2020, but showed promise by averaging 10.6 points per game in the playoffs.
If Oladipo is healthy and productive, he can take on Herro’s sixth-man/backup ballhandler role.
Contract Issue Could Make Herro Untradeable
Herro and Johnson are in similar situations this fall, as both are entering their fourth seasons and have yet to agree to a contract extension with their teams. A player who does not agree to an extension before the start of his fourth season will instead go to restricted free agency next summer.
And that is where this deal would hit a roadblock. Herro wants a big payday in an extension with the Heat, certainly something in the range of four years and $110-120 million, as Knicks star R.J. Barrett recently got—considering Herro helped his team to the NBA Finals and conference finals in his first three seasons, he is likely to seek more.
The Suns can’t really be interested in paying out that kind of money, not when they have a backcourt with Chris Paul signed for three years at $89 million total and Devin Booker at nearly $300 million over the next six seasons. The team is paying Mikal Bridges (four years, $90 million) and DeAndre Ayton (four years, $135 million) as well, and though Johnson won’t be cheap, he figures to be more of a bargain than Herro.
So, yes it might seem at first to be a trade that would not interest the Heat, but given the salaries and the advanced stats, it could very well, in the end, be the Suns who would reject it.