Getty Adam Thielen was among four veterans reportedly being offered by the Vikings approaching the trade deadline.
Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen fell into NFL obscurity after missing six games with a hamstring injury last season — the first time he’s ever missed a game in his career.
His comeback campaign has been dampened by critics who see it unlikely for Thielen, entering the 2020 season at the peak age of 30, but Pro Football Focus is high on Thielen.
Andrew Erickson was searching for who this year’s No. 1 fantasy football wide receiver is and named Thielen “this year’s Michael Thomas,” a glowing projection as Thomas broke the NFL record for receptions last season as the No. 1 fantasy receiver a season ago.
The ingredients of a Michael Thomas-esque fantasy season?
“A top-tier fantasy and real-life WR with the right combination of historical production, expected volume and team context that can support an overall WR1 finish. That player is Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen,” Erickson wrote.
Thielen has three things working for him: his past, a new role as a bonafide No. 1 wide receiver for the first time in his career and expected regression from the Vikings defense.
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Opportunities Ahead
GettyMany factors surrounding Thielen support that he’ll have a bounce back season.
Erickson’s case for Thielen being a “dark horse candidate to finish as the NO. 1 fantasy wide receiver” suggests he’s a steal at his current mid- to -late third-round value in fantasy drafts.
Over the past two seasons, only Thomas, Thielen and Packers wide receiver Davante Adams have posted at least one nine-game stretch of over 200 fantasy points (22.22 fantasy points per game). Thielen has proven he can produce elite WR1 numbers.
His production came in two polar opposite seasons for the Vikings offense. In 2018, the Vikings were second in passing attempts and fifth in pass-play percentage (68.8). With Dalvin Cook healthy last season, the Vikings ranked 30th in passing attempts and 31st in pass-play percentage (52.0). Employing their game plan often in a 10-6 regular season, the Vikings ran the ball 72 percent of the time when leading and still well-above average when they were trailing (41%).
The Saints ran the sixth-most run plays when winning by more than seven points last year. PFF expects the Vikings to have a more balanced pass/run ratio this season considering that the Vikings could trail in games more often this season with an overhauled defense.
The Vikings also shifted to running the ball more and lining up in two-tight end sets when Thielen was out as the 2019 roster lacked depth at wide receiver.
While there’s a stable of players hoping to absorb Stefon Diggs’ role in the Vikings offense, it’s most likely Thielen sees his target share increase to at least 2018’s production when he saw a 28 percent target share and 26 percent target rate on his routes run.
Thielen also owned the second-highest percentage of end-zone targets in 2019 among all NFL wide receivers. Kirk Cousins has the fourth-most end-zone throws since 2017, per PFF, suggesting Thielen will maintain a large amount of real estate in the red zone. The quarterback-wideout duo of Cousins and Thielen own the seventh-best PFF grade since 2018 (89.9).
Defense May Improve But Don’t Count On Takeaways
GettyThe Vikings defense may not help
Replacing five defensive starters from last season has been an ongoing topic of discussion of whether the Vikings defense will regress, introducing new starters and many more inexperienced players to the rotation.
It’s a safe bet that Zimmer will have another top 10 defense this season but this year’s group may not execute the same as 2018’s defense did. Last season’s defense forced turnovers at one of the highest rates in the league, per PFF.
The Vikings secured turnover opportunities 70.7 percent of the time, a feat that’s not likely to repeat, Erickson said, adding that “the Vikings weren’t winning because they were running the football at such a high rate. They were winning, which let them run more. I don’t anticipate a repeat running performance, which bodes well for Thielen’s high-end potential in 2019.”
If Thielen can overcome his injury in 2020 and replicate his past numbers as a starter, he could join a list of just 10 players who have surpassed 1,000 receiving yards at the age of 30 or older since 2015.
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Trevor Squire is a Heavy contributor covering the Minnesota Vikings and journalism graduate from the University of Minnesota — Twin Cities. Connect with him on Twitter @trevordsquire and join our Vikings community at Heavy on Vikings on Facebook.