Referee Selection for Bills vs. Chiefs Favors Home Team: Analyst

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) on Sunday, October 16 is largely considered the most exciting game of the regular season as the showdown between quarterback Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes stands to be an explosive spectacle.

The Bills head into Week 6 as 2.5 to 3-point favorites to defeat the Chiefs and such small margins have put a microscope on any possible advantage, and the referee selection could be a major concern, especially for Buffalo.

The NFL tapped Brad Allen as the head official for Sunday’s highly-anticipated matchup and Sharp Football Analysis revealed the veteran ref has a strong history of favoring the home team, especially when they’ve been deemed as underdogs.

Home teams with Allen officiating “are 60-39 (62%) on the money line since 2016,” as reported by Sharp Football Analysis reporter Joe Gibbs, and home teams “are 57-40-2 ATS (59%) with Allen in that same span. Home underdogs with Brad Allen are 22-11-1 ATS (67%) since 2016.”

Allen and his crew officiated Buffalo’s “perfect game” during their AFC Wild Card matchup against the New England Patriots last season, during which the Bills had zero punts, zero turnovers, zero fields, and zero negative plays during their 47-17 beatdown over their division rival. The victory took place at natch, Highmark Stadium. Three penalties were called against the Bills while there five went against the Patriots.

However, Allen, a nine-year NFL veteran, also called the Bills’ Thanksgiving Day 31-6 road win over the Saints last season. The Bills finished with just four accepted penalties for 35 yards, as reported by Buffalo Fanatic‘s Blake Parnham, while the Saints had four fouls for 24 yards.

While the ref’s stat appeared incredibly fair against Buffalo last year, the 2022 NFL season may paint a different picture. Chiefs Wire analyst Charles Goldman reported on Saturday, October 15, that thus far this season, “Allen’s crew has called a total of 52 penalties… If there is one saving grace it’s that the home team has come out on top with 22 penalties compared to 30 called on the away teams.”

Goldman pointed out another stat that doesn’t bode well for the Bills playing in what’s expected to be an extremely loud crowd at Arrowhead Stadium. “False start penalties have far-and-away been those called most frequently called by this crew,” he wrote of Allen’s squad. “They’ve called 17 false start penalties with the next closest in frequency being offensive holding, with six flags on the year.”

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Fans & Analysts Strongly Reacted to Allen Being Named Head Official

In addition to Allen’s history of favoring underdog home teams by 67%, his crew’s propensity for flags flown and penalties have caused further concern for analysts. Fansided’s Matt Verderame tweeted, “Allen’s crew ranks 5th of 17 in total flags thrown at 15.5/game. Could be another game where calls will loom large,” while Bills sideline reporter Sal Capaccio tweeted that Allen’s “crew has called the 7th most penalties per game out of 17 officiating crews.”

These stats have fans for both teams feeling uneasy about Sunday’s marquee matchup. A Bills fan tweeted, “Tragedy…hopefully no major b******* call gets in the way of a great game,” while a Chiefs fan wrote, “Honestly as long as they are the right calls that go both ways I am okay with whatever the number of flags are. But do not call ticky tack calls on one team and not the other.”

One Chiefs fan account expressed gratitude after dealing with referee Carl Cheffer’s questionable calls during the team’s recent Monday Night Football win over the Raiders. “Fwiw, no official in the league calls a higher percentage of penalties against the away team. Cheffers on the other hand, is the only official in the league that calls a higher percentage of penalties on the home team than the away team.”

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Mahomes Is an Underdog at Home for the First Time in His Career

Mahomes, who was drafted 10th overall by Kansas City in 2017, and made his debut as the team’s starting quarter in Week 17 of that year, has never been deemed the underdog while playing at Arrowhead — until now. According to Front Office Sports, Sunday’s AFC showdown will be the first time the Chiefs star hasn’t been the betting favorite at home.

Overall, Mahomes is 3-1 against the Bills, including 2-0 in playoff games, and has a QBR rating of 84.2 against Buffalo, per ESPN. While Allen is 1-3 against the Chiefs, the win/loss stat doesn’t do his offensive performance justice. During those three games, the 6-5, 237-pound quarterback threw 11 passing touchdowns and scored one rushing with just two interceptions.

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