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Matt Ryan is projected to be the third-oldest starting quarterback in the NFL this season. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the only starters who are older.
But according NFL writer Nick Shook of NFL.com, Ryan still has plenty left in the tank, especially when throwing deep passes.
Using two analytical statistics to measure success when throwing deep, Shook ranked the Top 10 quarterbacks at completing passes down the field in 2021. Ryan came in at No. 2 on the list.
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Methology to Nick Shook’s Top Deep Passers List
Shook used two Next Gen Stat measurements to construct his list — expected completion percentage and completion percentage above expectation.
Expected completion percentage takes into account the level of difficulty in a set of pass attempts from one quarterback whereas completion percentage above expectation is the difference between a quarterback’s actual completion percentage and his expected completion percentage.
For Shook’s list, he looked at those two measurements on pass attempts that traveled 20-plus air yards.
Ryan completed 20 of 42 passes that went at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. On those passes, he recorded 718 yards, a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 107.7 passer rating.
Furthermore, Ryan’s expected completion percentage on those passes was 29.9%, which gave him a +17.7% completion percentage above expectation.
“As we know, Ryan’s Falcons didn’t make the playoffs last season, and he was traded to the Colts in March,” Shook wrote. “However, Ryan’s deep-passing stats show how he vastly outperformed expectations under difficult circumstances in 2021.
Matt Ryan NFL’s Second-Best Deep Passer in 2021 Despite Poor Receiving Core
In building his list, Shook also took into account the the offensive playmakers and blocking around each quarterback. Last year, Patrick Mahomes didn’t make Shook’s Top 10 deep passers list for 2020 because Mahomes threw to more wide open pass catchers than other quarterbacks in the league.
The lack of great wide receiver play with the Atlanta Falcons helped Ryan finish at No. 2.
“Consider: Atlanta’s top receiver, Calvin Ridley, played in just five games before leaving the teams to focus on his ‘mental wellbeing.’ Ryan was left to lean on rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, with Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus as his top wideouts,” Shook wrote. “His offensive line was notoriously leaky. And he still tied for the top passing score on deep passes in the entire league.”
“Those of you who believe ‘Matty Ice’ is washed, over the hill, past his prime, etc., are flat-out wrong. The numbers prove it.”
Last season was the first time in Ryan’s career that he didn’t have one of his receivers reach the 1,000-yard receiving mark. Gage led all Atlanta Falcons receivers with 770 yards. Pitts led all Atlanta pass catchers with 1,026 receiving yards.
Ryan placed No. 2 on Shook’s 2021 top 10 deep passers list after not appearing in the top 10 on the same list last year.
Interestingly, Shook ranked Colts 2021 starting quarterback Carson Wentz, who the team traded to the Washington Commanders in March, seventh on his deep passers list from last year.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the only signal caller ahead of Ryan on the list. Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford rounded out the top five.
In addition to Wentz, Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers also made the list.
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