Former No. 2 Overall QB Has Prediction for Steelers’ Kenny Pickett

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett

Eric Espada/Getty Images Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett prior to the game against the Miami Dolphins on October 23, 2022.

After one quarter of play on Sunday Night Football, the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) were in a 13-0 hole against the Miami Dolphins (4-3) and seemed headed for a second blowout loss in the span of three weeks. But Pittsburgh’s defense found its footing and in the end the offense had two chances to drive for a go-ahead score in the game’s final minutes. But alas, Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions in the last four minutes that dashed the team’s hopes, which prompted select observers to offer harsh critiques of the young signal-caller on NFL Twitter.

“I’m not enjoying the Kenny Pickett experience,” tweeted one observer, having watched Pickett complete 32 of 44 passes for 257 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions. In case you’re wondering, that adds up to 5.8 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 66.2, the kind of numbers that won’t win many NFL games these days.


Robert Griffin III a ‘Believer’ in Kenny Pickett

But while the game was still in progress, former No. 2 overall quarterback Robert Griffin III took to Twitter to offer some reassuring words for Steelers fans who have doubts whether Pickett (selected No. 20 overall in the 2022 draft) can be the long-term answer at the quarterback position.

“I know it’s hard right now Steelers fans but you gotta take the good with the bad with Kenny Pickett. He is a rookie and learning through this trial by fire. He will be better for it in the long run,” tweeted Griffin. That may very well be true, but it isn’t much comfort to a fan base that hasn’t experienced a losing season since 2003.

Griffin went on to add that he’s “a believer in Pickett,” noting that “(Pickett) has no fear…. He just needs more time on task with these weapons.”

That said, it’s worth remembering that Pickett was making just his third NFL start on Sunday night, and has only been practicing with the Steelers’ first-team offense since he took over the starting job.

But that doesn’t change the fact that expectations for rookie quarterbacks have risen dramatically since, say, Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie in 1998, and Robert Griffin III — not to mention former Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger — are part of the reason why.


Ex-Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger Broke Dan Marino’s Rookie Passer Rating Record

Recall that in 2004, Roethlisberger broke Dan Marino’s NFL record for rookie passer rating, producing a 98.1 rating on the way to winning all 13 of his regular-season starts, as per Pro Football Reference. Marino had established a new benchmark in 1983, when he had a 96.0 rating.

Roethlisberger’s record stood until 2012, when Robert Griffin III shattered the record by throwing 20 touchdown passes against only five interceptions en route to a 102.4 rating, not to mention a 9-6 record as a starter.

By way of comparison, the less-than 67 passer rating that Pickett has produced thus far seems woeful. A more reasonable measuring stick might be Mason Rudolph, who didn’t play as a rookie but made eight starts during his second season and had a passer rating of 82.0 on the way to a 5-3 record.

A even better comparison might be Devlin ‘Duck’ Hodges — a rookie undrafted free agent who made six starts as a rookie in 2019 — and generated a passer rating of 71.4 while winning three of his six starts. Those would be the only starts of his career, as he never again appeared in a regular-season game and retired from professional football earlier this year.

This isn’t to say that Pickett’s ceiling is comparable to Rudolph (much less Hodges). But as Griffin noted, Steelers fans may have to live with a bunch of mistakes this season, in hopes of better days ahead in 2023 (and beyond).