Getty Collin Morikawa hits an iron in preparation at Royal Troon.
The British Open is the oldest golf tournament in the world and last major championship of the year. It was first held in 1860 and is rotated around a host of courses in the United Kingdom. The courses are coastal links tracks that provide a unique style of golf compared to what we generally see on the PGA Tour. The Open Championship will be hosted by Royal Troon this year for the 10th time.
Royal Troon was designed by a combination of George Strath, Willie Fernie and James Braid between 1888 and 1923. It’s located on the west coast of Scotland and is extremely close to the coast compared to other Open rota courses. Royal Troon first hosted the Open in 1923. It will play as a par 71 at around 7,300 yards, including a record-breaking 623-yard par 5.
Our model this week is looking at SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Fairways Gained, SG: Putting (Slow Greens), Greens in Regulations Gained, and SG: Par 5.
Top Value: $9,000+: Collin Morikawa – $9,900
Collin Morikawa continues to play some of the best golf in the world right now. He now has nine consecutive finishes of 16th or better dating all the way back to the Masters. Five of those finishes were in the top four, three of those starts were major championships, and four more of them were elevated events. So once again, he’s been consistently contending heavily in the game’s biggest tournaments.
All facets of Morikawa’s game are really clicking right now. His putter, which used to hold him back, has actually been quite the strength over the last few months. He also has gained strokes around the greens in every start since the Wells Fargo. Considering his accuracy off the tee and being a former winner of The Open, I don’t see why this isn’t a great course fit this week. While I may think a couple of the top guys are more likely to win, Morikawa is easily my best value at $9,900. He ranks 4th in my model.
British Open DFS Top Value: $8,000-$8,900: Tony Finau – $8,700
Tony Finau hits a tee shot at Royal Troon.
Tony Finau seems to be coming into this major pretty quietly for someone who has gone 5th, 3rd, 8th in his last three starts. That included the U.S. Open when one silly triple bogey may have cost his chances at winning his first major. Finau is hitting the irons at an elite level, and he’s also really turned around the putter as of late.
Despite not playing in Scotland last week, Finau has done just fine on links courses. He has finishes of 9th, 3rd and 15th at Opens in the past. And he also finished 18th here at Royal Troon as a debutant in 2016. Finau has a great history in high winds and loves difficult courses. This is a great price to pair with Morikawa as well. He ranks 6th in my model.
Top Value: $7,000-$7,900: Brian Harman – $7,600
This price just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Harman is the defending champion of this tournament, which does provide a bit of complication to things. But he was also 6th the year before that and 19th in 2021. Harman was also 21st last week in the Scottish Open and was 12th there last year before winning The Open.
Harman’s form coming in is quite good. He gained 6.4 strokes on approach last week, which was his best mark since finishing 2nd at the PLAYERS. The only reason he hasn’t been finishing higher is a cold putter lately. We know Harman is a good putter throughout his career, so he’s due for a hot week. Harman has also always loved slow greens. He ranks 8th in my model.
British Open DFS Top Value: $6,000-$6,900: Sungjae Im – $6,900
Once again, this is an outrageous price. Sungjae Im has been in some superb form dating back to mid-April. In fact, if you don’t count the major championships in that stretch, his form reads: 4th, 12th, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 4th, 12th. The struggles in majors could be why he’s priced lower this week, but it’s not like Im hasn’t been able to step up in majors. He’s been in the picture at the Masters a few times and was T20 here at The Open last year.
Im’s irons have been really heating up, which is all that was holding him back during an extended rough patch. The putter has also steadied recently with three straight tournaments of gaining at least two shots on the greens. Im is a fantastic player in high winds and showed with a 4th last week that he doesn’t mind playing in Scotland. He ranks 15th in my model.
Note: This price range is absolutely stacked. Other options in this range considered were Davis Thompson ($6,900), Russell Henley ($6,700), and Adam Scott ($6,700).
British Open DFS Top Value: $5,000-$5,900: Matteo Manassero – $5,400
Matteo Manassero hits a tee shot at the Scottish Open.
It’s great to see Matteo Manassero as an option again at an Open Championship. It was somehow 15 years ago when the teenage sensation finished 13th at this tournament and became a rising star in the golf world. But he hasn’t played in an Open since 2016. Last week, Manassero gained an absurd 8.8 strokes on approach in a great field at the Scottish Open. He’s been producing some great efforts with those irons and could really factor in this week.
His main battle will be finding enough fairways off the tee and finding some form with his volatile putter. At times, he can hole plenty of putts and tends to contend for wins on the European Tour when he does. His form over there has been pretty strong of late. At this low of a price, I think the former prodigy is worth a play and could manage a feel-good, decent finish at Royal Troon. He ranks 50th in my model.