Getty Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez considers his next move on the mound.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 31. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
Logan Webb has had a challenging month, sporting a 6.65 ERA in his last four games. Nevertheless, he has consistently pitched at least five innings in each of his July outings. Given this, Webb remains a strong candidate to hit his strikeout prop.
The Oakland Athletics provide a favorable matchup for him, as they rank 11th in fewest runs scored and are tied for 5th in the lowest team batting average. Webb’s changeup and sweeper could be especially effective here, considering the A’s have the 10th-lowest runs above average against changeups and the 13th-lowest performance against sweepers.
With the potential for Webb to have a longer outing, betting on him to record over 19.5 outs seems appealing. A longer start would naturally boost his strikeout chances, and past performance supports this. Webb has averaged 6 strikeouts per game in his last two appearances against Oakland.
Among his top three pitches, Webb’s changeup and sweeper have the highest whiff rates, with the sweeper boasting his best strikeout rate. Additionally, the Athletics have struck out in double digits in two of their last three games. Given these factors, Webb is well-positioned to achieve at least six strikeouts in his upcoming start.
Lock of the Day
Framber Valdez to Record a Win (+100, DraftKings)
Framber Valdez has been impressive at home, and the Houston Astros offense has been strong at Minute Maid Park as well. Valdez has secured wins in 9 of his last 16 games, including 4 of his last 6, and has won 4 consecutive home starts against teams like the Los Angeles, Miami, Baltimore, and Minnesota
He’ll be up against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank 18th in wRC+ and OBP against left-handed pitchers this season. Over the past month, Pittsburgh is 17th in walk rate against lefties and has the 4th highest strikeout rate against southpaws. Recently, Valdez has been exceptional, especially at home, with a 0.99 ERA in his last four home starts spanning 27.1 innings. He ranks in the 98th percentile for ground ball rate and the 91st percentile for barrel rate. The Pirates have the 6th highest ground ball rate against lefties this year. The betting lines reflect confidence in another strong outing for Valdez, with lines set at 18.5 outs, 1.5 earned runs, and 4.5 hits allowed.
On the flip side, Pirates starter Jake Woodford has struggled this season, holding a 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in his two starts, both of which resulted in losses. The Astros have been dominant against right-handed pitchers at home, with 8 of the last 12 righties on the road losing to Houston. The exceptions have been Paul Skenes, River Ryan, Max Scherzer, and Nathan Eovaldi. Houston ranks 7th in OPS, 6th in BABIP, and 8th in wRC+ against righties this season, and they also have the 4th lowest strikeout rate. This matchup looks promising for both Valdez and the Astros at home.
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