Emelianenko-Werdum: Who Dares, Who Wins

photo by Esther Lin for Strikeforce

The destruction of Fabricio Werdum at the hands of Fedor Emelianenko is so probable, many outlets may have already written the post-fight recap, and are merely waiting for the event to happen to publish their stories. But there are three distinct ways that Werdum can succeed against the Russian titan—not necessarily the method being submission, stoppage or decision, but the possibility of Fedor overlooking Werdum, Emelianenko sustaining an injury or illness, or Werdum simply being the better fighter on the night.

Although Georges St. Pierre ranks highly as a pound-for-pound star, his 2007 decision to grossly under-estimate Matt Serra’s ability meant he only trained a handful of times for their first fight; Serra shocked the world with a first-round stoppage win. Is Fedor looking past Werdum?

“He belongs to the top ten fighters, and he proved that a long time ago. He performed with some very great names—that can be seen from his record,” explained Fedor at the pre-fight press conference on Wednesday, clearly aware of the danger posed by his opponent.

BJ Penn was another fighter who appeared unbeatable at 155 lbs. Yet there were reports that he was battling a sinus infection going into his defense against Frankie Edgar at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi. It might sound like an excuse, but all fighters can be prone to injury or sickness, and such handicaps inevitably affect performance, even in minute ways. Edgar walked away with a razor-close decision, but we can’t discount the fact that BJ didn’t look himself in that fight.

Emelianenko did dislocate his thumb against Brett Rogers, something he addressed during the open conference call, telling the media “Everything is fine,” and reassuring everyone that he was at 100%, “It has healed great.”

The final way that Werdum can beat Fedor has to do with a combination of age and his own desire. At a certain point, Emelianenko’s attributes will decline due to age. Whether it’s his speed, power, reflexes or ability to take a punch, as he ages, there will be an area where he slows down. That potential weakness alone will not give Fabricio a victory, as George Foreman once said, “Great fighters don’t slip—you have to make them slip.”

On Inside MMA, Werdum predicted a submission win for himself, “I go to the ground, because I believe in my jiu-jitsu,” going on to say that it would happen in the first round because “there’s no sweat [to impair getting a submission hold as happens in the later rounds].”

Matt Lindland, who faced Emelianenko in 2007, was on hand at the pre-fight press conference and gave his assessment of Fedor’s abilities, noting how hard it was to get Emelianenko to the ground and suggesting that there are no vulnerabilities for Werdum to exploit:

“The guy’s good—I don’t know if he has a ton of weaknesses. He hits hard on the feet, you don’t want to get hit by him, and on the ground he’s got phenomenal speed for his size. I don’t really know if there’s a weakness.”

There is only one fighter who can lay claim to have outperformed Fedor in an MMA fight, although not officially: In 2000, Ricardo Arona battled Emelianenko to a controversial decision loss by using his wrestling to control Emelianenko. It was just Fedor’s fourth professional fight, but watching the tape yields a look at a time when Emelianenko wasn’t so dominant. Fedor’s only official loss via cut to Tsuyoshi Kosaka came on the same night after this bout at the RINGS tournament, but since it occurred just 17 seconds into the first round, it did not prove that Kosaka had any answers to solve the Russian equation.

So come Saturday, should Werdum muster every ounce of courage and confidence that he has, there are potential ways that he could snatch away the victory against the greatest heavyweight in existence. He’ll be going up against a lot—he has lost to far lesser fighters, as his record clearly shows. But Matt Serra and Frankie Edgar both took their chances, and so should every other challenger who walks in as the underdog. Even if Fabricio walks away with a close decision loss, he’ll be respected in defeat for taking the hardest challenge available to him in Strikeforce’s rather thin heavyweight division.

Of course, fans are eager to see if the UFC can write M-1 a large enough check to match Fedor with the winner of Lesnar-Carwin, but Werdum comes first and it would be foolish to overlook this match. On June 26th, Werdum will be prepared for the biggest fight of his life. But only Fedor Emelianenko can beat Fedor Emelianenko.