Strikeforce Grand Prix: Epic or Epic Fail?

Fedor Emelianenko

Strikeforce’s World Grand Prix could be a huge success or a giant failure

This thing is either going to be the biggest event of the mixed martial arts year or the butt of all jokes; there doesn’t seem like there can be an in between.

Saturday night in New Jersey, Strikeforce kicks off their ambitious Heavyweight Grand Prix with the first pair of opening round match-ups, and many in the MMA community are anxious to see what happens.

Having assembled eight of the top heavyweight competitors in the sport, including four fighters currently ranked in the top 10, the San Jose-based company has set-up an event that could captivate the MMA audience for the majority of the year. With heavyweight elites Fedor Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum involved, even the most staunch UFC supporters will be curious to see what transpires.

With the UFC heavyweight division currently in a holding pattern due to the injury hiatus of champion Cain Velasquez, this is a chance for the competitors in the field to stake their claim to the upper reaches of the division. While many have debated the position of Emelianenko and Overeem in the past, a win for either would cement their standing as a Top 3 heavyweight, and open up the debate at the head of the list. The same applies to Werdum, and while the other five competitors may not be able to stake a claim to top spot on the charts, success in Strikeforce’s Grand Prix would certainly give them greater traction than they have right now.

When the opening round pairings were initially announced, I bristled at the decision to pair Overeem with Werdum and Emelianenko with Silva, believing that the organization was wasting their best case scenario for the second round on first round match-ups. After a little more thought, I think I’ve figured out the logic.

Loading up one side of the bracket ensures that one of the Top 4 fighters in the organization moves through to the finals; either Overeem, Emelianenko, Werdum or Antonio Silva will advance and whoever emerges will have not only earned their place in the last pair, but become the man to beat in the process. At that point, fans are going to tune in anyway, having been drawn to the finals by the compelling bouts created on one side of the bracket.

If you were to break up the Big 4 and have them spread out facing the remaining four competitors – Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett, Brett Rogers and Sergei Kharitonov – you run the ever-so-slight risk that all four “underdogs” emerge victorious. This way, you’re assured that one of your more recognizable and elite fighters makes the finals, and you roll the dice with the other side of the bracket in hopes of a compelling opponent emerging along the way.

There are some definite marquee match-ups that could come together along the way; a second round meeting between Emelianenko and Overeem, with the winner meeting Barnett in the finals seems like the dream scenario, while a victory for Werdum would catapult “Vai Cavalo” into the discussion of the top heavyweights in the sport.

Even if there is an injury replacement situation, one of the ousted fighters from the “Big Four” could be called upon as a fill-in, as could unbeaten prospect Shane del Rosario, a powerful kickboxer who should get by Lavar Johnson in his reserve match Saturday night.

If everything runs relatively smoothly, the World Heavyweight Grand Prix could be an epic event and a great success for Strikeforce.

But what did Robert Burns write about the best laid plans of mice and men?

There are, of course, numerous potential pitfalls to trying to execute such an ambitious project.

While a single injury wouldn’t be unmanageable, the need to repeatedly return fallen fighters into the field or rely heavily on an underwhelming selection of potential alternates would take all the steam out of Strikeforce’s grand plan.

Though injuries happen and contingencies are in place, having a fighter bow out because of injury will cast doubt on the validity of the fighter who wins the tournament.

Joachim Hansen may have beaten Shinya Aoki to capture the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix in 2008, but he did so only after replacing an injured Eddie Alvarez, the man who bounced him from the tournament in the quarterfinal round. To this day, the win feels hollow because of Hansen’s less-than-daunting path to the finals through Kultar Gill.

That doesn’t even take into consideration the drop in competition that occurs if fighters like Valetijn Overeem or Ray Sefo are relied upon to round out the field at one point or another. Nothing personal against either man, but neither should be anywhere near this tournament.

Perhaps a more real danger than injuries is the contract and licensing issues that could cast a black cloud over this entire endeavor.

Strikeforce and Josh Barnett can say all they want about having no issues getting licensed in various states; if that was the case, it would already be done and the location of “The Baby-Faced Assassin’s” first round meeting with Brett Rogers would already be announced. Should the bout take place in Japan as rumored, all bets are off.

Not only is holding a quarter of the event halfway around the world bad for domestic business, but unless strict drug testing policies are in place, the questions that continually circle around Barnett (and Alistair Overeem) will overshadow everything good about this event.

Additionally, who’s to say that Overeem and Emelianenko are going to fight on without delay if they make it through their opening round match-ups?

For more than three years, Overeem kept the Strikeforce heavyweight title on a shelf somewhere while competing as both a kickboxer and mixed martial artist in Japan, while Emelianenko’s representatives have held out for a better contract following each of “The Last Emperor’s” fights with Strikeforce.

Is Strikeforce really in a place to take either Vadim Finkelstein or “Ubereem” at their word that their participation in the Heavyweight Grand Prix is assured until the end? Imagine the potential demands should one be needed to return to the field after losing at some point.

While I said early on that I see the potential wisdom in stacking one side of the tournament with the four fighters who currently rank as the top heavyweights in the organization, there is no question that it is a risky proposition as well.

Though the current alignment theoretically ensures that one of Emelianenko, Overeem, Werdum or Silva advances to the finals, it also means that Arlovski, Barnett, Rogers or Kharitonov could very well represent the other side. Of that group, only Barnett is of interest, having only fallen out of the heavyweight elite due to inactivity.

While Rogers remains a work-in-progress with some potential, he’s dropped his last two under the Strikeforce banner and only managed a unanimous decision over Ruben Villareal at a Warrior-1 event in Halifax, Nova Scotia late last year. Not exactly the type of result that inspires a Cinderella story amongst this bunch.

I sincerely hope that everything goes off without a hitch for Strikeforce and the Heavyweight Grand Prix; it has the potential to be a tremendous event and a compelling story throughout the rest of the year.

It could also be the Titanic, so keep an eye out for icebergs.