Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz
Previewing tonight’s big Strikeforce event in San Diego
This weekend’s Strikeforce event marks the first time the big boys of the brand will step into the cage on Showtime under Zuffa ownership.
The four main card fights are reason enough to watch this show. With two title fights, the return of former light heavyweight champ Gegard Mousasi and a battle between two guys who like to wear multicolored spandex, but it will also be interesting to see if there are any noticeable changes to the broadcast now that people from the UFC are running things behind the scenes.
We’ve already seen some changes, with the removal of amateur fights from the undercard and the use of elbow strikes on the ground, and it’s only a matter of time before we start to see even more improvements. The preliminary card is better than many previous events, highlighted by Japanese star Hiroyuki Takaya returning to the United States for the first time in three years.
While the Strikeforce prelims aren’t quite on par with their UFC counterparts (yet), this main card is completely awesome and sure to pack all kinds of explosive action.
Shinya Aoki (26-5-1) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (16-1-0)
Normally, I want to keep MMA and professional wrestling in opposite corners of the cage, admitting the parallels but drawing distinctions between the two. This, however, is one of those rare times where we need a little WWE influence in an MMA bout.
Both guys love colorful spandex, so the loser should be forced to wear plain black trunks from here on out, a nod to the old gimmick matches from wrasslin’ days of old. Either “Fancy Pants” is forced to wear not so fancy pants or the Japanese submission star known for his rainbow leggings is stuck in straight black; tell me that isn’t awesome?
Stepping out of the squared circle and back into the reality of this bout, both guys are battling to put some shine back on their stars here.
Beerbohm suffered the first loss of his career last time out, dropping a unanimous decision to Pat Healy. It was the first true test of the former meth addict’s career and while he looked good at times, he came up short. His story and unbeaten run made him a minor star, but with the winning streak gone, Beerbohm needs to prove he can hang with top notch talent.
This time last year, Aoki was no worse than third in many lightweight rankings. After B.J. Penn lost to Frankie Edgar (the first time), many wondered if “The Tobikan Judan” was the top 155-pounder in the sport. Then he got steamrolled by Gilbert Melendez.
He’s won three-straight MMA bouts since then, including a victory over the man who will challenge Melendez for his Strikeforce title later in this card, Tatsuya Kawajiri. Unfortunately for Aoki, his last appearance in the ring resulted in a brutal knockout against kickboxer Yuichiro “Jienotsu” Nagashima at Dynamite!! 2010.
To be considered one of the best in the deep lightweight world rankings, Aoki needs to prove he can win against American wrestlers. Melendez ran through him last April, and while Beerbohm isn’t nearly as powerful as the Strikeforce lightweight champ, he’s still a solid wrestler capable of exploiting Aoki’s wrestling deficiencies.
If that happens again, Aoki can kiss his top 10 ranking goodbye.
Gegard Mousasi (30-3-1) vs. Keith Jardine (17-9-1)
“The Dean of Mean” must really be desperate to get back under the Zuffa umbrella, because taking a fight like this on two weeks notice looks like a fast trip to loss #10 if you ask me.
Mousasi, the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, remains one of the top emerging stars in the sport, despite his loss to Muhammed Lawal last April. He’s rattled off back-to-back first round submission wins over Jake O’Brien and Tatsuya Mizuno in Japan, and would be a bad matchup for Jardine on a full training camp, so you can only imagine how gruesome this could get with just 14 days to prepare.
I commend Jardine for stepping up and filling the void left by Mike Kyle and his broken hand, but the popular former UFC gatekeeper hasn’t been on the same level as Mousasi in a couple years now. Jardine is only two fights removed from an ugly five-fight losing streak, and beating “Kiko” France and Aron Lofton is a lot different from pulling the upset over a guy like Mousasi.
While Jardine has scored major upsets in the past, we’re three-plus years removed from his split decision win over Chuck Liddell at UFC 76 and more than four years beyond his first round TKO of Forrest Griffin. Since the Liddell win, Jardine is 1-6 against quality opponents, a stat that should tell you all you really need to know about this one.
Gilbert Melendez (19-2-0) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-6-2)
While Nick Diaz and Paul Daley have the final slot on the fight card and have been getting the lion’s share of the attention, this lightweight title fight is a much more compelling and meaningful matchup in my humble opinion.
Melendez is the dark horse candidate in the race to be crowned the top lightweight in the world. Competing for Strikeforce puts him at a disadvantage from a recognizability standpoint, but the Skrap Pack member has as good a resume as Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, if not better.
The 28-year-old has avenged each of his two career losses (Josh Thomson and Mitsuhiro Ishida) and boasts wins over Aoki, Clay Guida and a 2006 win over the man he’s facing here. A second win over kawajiri could make the argument for Melendez being the top 155-pound fighter in the sport even more compelling.
Of course, beating Kawajiri for a second time is far from a sure thing. Unlike Aoki and many other Japanese fighters who rely on finesse and technical proficiency to earn wins, Kawajiri goes by the nickname “Crusher” and prefers to use his solid wrestling and ground and pound to put away the opposition.
He used that formula with great success against Thomson on New Year’s Eve, dominating the former Strikeforce champ en route to a unanimous decision win, but it will be harder to accomplish with Melendez.
Just as a win puts Melendez in the conversation at the top of the 155-pound class, Kawajiri can cement his standing in the upper echelon by claiming the Strikeforce championship as well. He is a legitimate top 10 talent and this could end up being his North American coming out party.
Nick Diaz (24-7-1) vs. Paul Daley (27-9-2)
This main event match-up has the potential to be explosive.
The problem is that there is an equal possibility that it resembles every fight Daley has ever had against someone who plays to their strengths in the grappling department. I expect it to land somewhere between the two.
There is no question that Daley is one of the most dangerous strikers in the sport. His left hook has left a laundry list of contenders laying face down and out cold on the canvas. Ask Scott Smith. And Yuya Shirai. And Dustin Hazelett.
You get the the picture.
The rub – there’s gotta be a rub – is that Daley has displayed a severe allergy to the ground throughout his career; five of his nine losses have come by way of submission, with at least two others (Josh Koscheck and Nick Thompson) resulting from Daley’s wrestling deficiencies.
All that makes Diaz a very compelling opponent for “Semtex.”
The Strikeforce welterweight champion is confident enough in his boxing abilities that he could certain opt to trade with Daley, at least early on. However, Diaz also has the option of taking this fight to the floor and utilizing his underrated jiu jitsu, just as he did against Evangelista Cyborg last time out.
As much as Daley has serious knockout power, it’s been a long time since Diaz has been stopped by strikes. You have to go back to his 2002 loss to Jeremy Jackson to find a TKO that didn’t come from cuts.
Diaz won’t have the luxury of a reach advantage in this one, as both men measure out at 74-inches, but he’s great at pawing with his jab to keep space and find an opening.
How this fight plays out is up to Diaz. You know Daley is going to come forward looking to land with power, so it’s just a matter of whether or not the Cesar Gracie student wants to test his chin and throw hands.
If Diaz decides to stand, we could have a serious firefight and a new welterweight champion. If not, expect to hear a lot of complaining out of Daley in the near future.