Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Kharitonov Preview & Predictions

Breaking down Saturday’s event from top to bottom

If the last major Strikeforce show was a step in the right direction, tomorrow’s event in Cincinnati as another giant leap forward in terms of the depth of talent filling out the fight card.

Of the ten fights schedule to hit the cage at the U.S. Bank Arena, nine of them feature recognizable names in fights that matter. The main card is a quality line-up that is superior to the pay-per-view offering from UFC 133 and matches up well with the upcoming event in Denver.

The future of Strikeforce remains undecided. Until things get sorted out, I’m just going to sit back and enjoy events like this. Feel free to do the same.

Dominique Steele (3-1) vs. Chris Mierzwiak (3-0)

See in the opening where I said nine of the ten fights feature recognizable names? This is the Sesame Street fight; the one that isn’t like the others and just doesn’t belong.

This is two Ohio heavyweights without a recognizable win between them getting the chance to step into the cage on the big stage in front of their friends and family.

Good luck, congratulations, have fun, and stay safe; we’re moving on.

Alexis Davis (10-4) vs. Amanda Nunes (6-1)

Fresh off her unanimous decision win over Julie Kedzie at the end of July, Davis returns to welcome Nunes to the 135 pound ranks.

A native of Port Colborne, Ontario, Davis has twice as much experience as Nunes and needs to rely on that and her conditioning to drag this fight into deep water. Nunes is an extremely powerful fighter who has finished her last six opponents, including a 14-second knockout of Julia Budd back in January.

She’s been out of action since and is cutting to 135 for the first time, so there is no telling how ring rust and the weight cut will impact her, but you can be sure she’ll be looking to get in and out quickly so that she doesn’t even have to really worry about her conditioning.

With the lack of depth in the bantamweight ranks, the winner could be considered for a future title shot.

Mike Kyle (18-8-1) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (8-0)

A ‘tweener who has been willing to fill in on short notice throughout his career, Kyle has now committed himself to the light heavyweight ranks, and looks to extend his five-fight winning streak as a 205 pounder.

Over the last three years, the only losses the American Kickboxing Academy veteran has suffered have come to top-ranked heavyweights Antonio Silva and Fabricio Werdum.

De Lima makes his Strikeforce debut on off a victory over former WEC middleweight champ Paulo Filho. That doesn’t mean the same today as it would have a couple years ago, as Filho has been an enigma over the last few years. That being said, de Lima stopped each of his seven opponents before Filho due to strikes, and teaming him with the heavy-handed Kyle could deliver an explosive contest in the middle of the preliminary card.

Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos (18-14) vs. Jordan Mein (22-7)

Two things jump out at me in this welterweight pairing:

1. Mein gets a dangerous welcome to the Strikeforce cage
2. Guaranteed fireworks.

“Cyborg” is a fierce striker who has shown increased discipline since moving to welterweight. The 21-year-old Canadian has made a name for himself over the last year by beating a collection of former UFC and Strikeforce alums, most recently going toe-to-toe with Marius Zaromskis for three rounds.

This one could turn into a battle to see who can withstand more punishment, as neither “Cyborg” or Mein have been known to back down from a good old fashioned brawl.

Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (10-3) vs. Yoel Romero (4-0)

This light heavyweight bout is a surprisingly good fight to be featured on the preliminary portion of the card.

“Feijao” is returning for the first time since losing the 205 pound title to Dan Henderson back in March. He had rattled off three straight wins prior to that, displaying his muay thai skills and finishing power.

Though he’s had just four fights, Romero is a live underdog here. The Cuban fighter won a silver medal in freestyle wrestling at the 2000 Olympics and has made a seamless transition to MMA to this point.

Cavalcante struggled with Mo Lawal and his takedowns when they met before drawing Lawal into a striking battle that turned the tides. While he’s yet to face a challenger remotely as talented as Cavalcante, it’s encouraging to see him winning fights in the stand-up, and not relying solely on his wrestling.

Chalk this up as another potentially explosive encounter on a great undercard in Cincinnati.

Pat Healy (25-16) vs. Maximo Blanco (8-2-1)

Healy steps in for the injured Josh Thomson and serves as the welcome wagon for the lightweight King of Pancrase.

Blanco is an undeniable talent. A bronze medal winner in freestyle wrestling at the 2007 Pan Am Games, he’s won six straight coming into his Strikeforce debut.

But he’s not without question marks. Like many fighters coming over to North America from Japan, it’s hard to get an accurate measure of where Blanco stacks up against true competition. He boasts a solid win over Strikeforce vet Rodrigo Damm, but the verdict is still out on whether he has the potential to go far in North American MMA.

The opposite is true with Healy. You know you’re going to get a scrappy veteran with good wrestling. He’s the perfect kind of fringe contender to challenge the newcomer in his North American debut.

With the lack of depth at the top end of the division, it wouldn’t be hard to envision the winner climbing into title contention. Of course, it may be for nothing, as hardly anyone expects Strikeforce to be around at this point next year.

“King Mo” Lawal (7-1) vs. Roger Gracie (4-0)

This is an excellent test for both fighters.

Lawal returns for the first time in over a year, his first bout since losing the light heavyweight championship to “Feijao” last August in Houston. He’s had knee surgery since then, and after shuttling around the country sharpening his individual skills under various coaches, Lawal set up his training camp at AKA.

For Gracie, this is a step up in competition from the Trevor Prangleys of the world. While his grappling acumen is unquestioned, there are still questions about his striking, though it would be surprising to see these two spend a great deal of this fight on their feet.

Chances are this bout comes down to who controls things on the ground. Lawal has truly world-class wrestling and a solid top game, while Gracie is an elite jiu-jitsu player who will be fairly comfortable and dangerous off his back.

Dominant skill wins in this battle that could produce the next light heavyweight title contender.

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (14-2) vs. Luke Rockhold (7-1)

It’s rare that you have a title bout in the middle of a main card, but such is the case here, as “Jacare” and Rockhold come in third behind the two Heavyweight Grand Prix semifinals.

Souza is a tremendous grappler who has shown steadily-improving striking in his last few outings. He’s highly athletic — the kind of guy who would have been good at any sport he dedicated himself to — and it could be argued that Rockhold is a step back in competition in comparison to a guy like Tim Kennedy.

Injuries have sidelined Rockhold since February 2010 and his momentum has stalled as a result. He’s won six straight, and finished all seven of his bouts inside the first round. He’s a very good athlete, and possesses a strong all-around game.

The question here will be how Rockhold responds to more than a year on the shelf and a significant jump up the competitive ladder.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (16-2) vs. Daniel Cormier (8-0)

The former Olympian Cormier fills the void left by the removal and subsequent release of former heavyweight champ (and new UFC signee)  Alistair Overeem. While it is a golden opportunity for the unbeaten 32-year-old prospect, he’s stepping in against a man who has to be considered the favorite at this point.

Silva didn’t just beat Fedor Emelianenko last time out; he smashed “The Last Emperor,” dominating him on the ground with his size and pounding on him enough to force a doctor’s stoppage after the second round.

While Cormier has an outstanding wrestling pedigree and showed improved hands in his most recent victory, he’s at a significant disadvantage in terms of height, reach and overall size. He’ll need to overcome all those things in order to win this bout.

Josh Barnett (30-5) vs. Sergei Kharitonov (18-4)

Barnett is the most experienced and accomplished competitor left in the tournament. He’s a former PRIDE standout with an excellent ground game based in catch wrestling.

Considered the dark horse at the outset of the tournament, Kharitonov justified that billing in the opening round, weathering the early technical boxing of Andrei Arlovski before finding a hole and blasting the Belarusian.

Where this fight takes place will determine who has their hand raised at the end. Barnett is vastly superior on the ground, where his patience and technique bolster his submission game, while Kharitonov needs to keep it standing in order to win.