Breaking down the odds for Saturday’s card in New Jersey
HeavyMMA’s new CREDITS wagering feature is back with a look at the odds for UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller.
Writers Duane Finley and Nate Lawson and writer/editor Matt Erickson this week take a look at the UFC’s third big card on the Fox network, which takes place Saturday at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, N.J.
Erickson got off to a perfect start in our first event, sweeping his bets and going 12 for 12 picking fights on the UFC on Fuel TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva card in Sweden. But he struggled with his picks for UFC 145 in Atlanta.
We refresh you on the rules for our prognosticators at the bottom, and we give you the lines for the fights the boys have to work with. Take a look and see where their (fictional) money is going this week. Then stay tuned for the next installment of CREDITS, which will come at you for the UFC on Fuel TV: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier card May 15.
Jim Miller (-230) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Johny Hendricks (-125) vs. Josh Koscheck (-105)
Alan Belcher (+225) vs. Rousimar Palhares (-285)
Lavar Johnson (+170) vs. Pat Barry (-200)
Michael Johnson (+210) vs. Tony Ferguson (-270)
Tim Elliott (+350) vs. John Dodson (-500)
Pascal Krauss (+185) vs. John Hathaway (-235)
John Lineker (-320) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+250)
John Cholish (+110) vs. Danny Castillo (-140)
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Nick Denis (-250) vs. Roland Delorme (+200)
Karlos Vemola (-125) vs. Mike Massenzio (-105)
Matt “Riverboat Gambler” Erickson
Last event’s record: 2-3 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall record: 6-3 singles, 2-2 parlays. Overall bank: Up $123.20.
Last event recap: MattE hit a pair of nice upset picks with Ben Rothwell and Marcus Brimage, but that was it. Both his parlays came up short. He made $65 of his $100 back.
With a little house money to play with still from my UFC Sweden sweep, I can afford to throw a little on a ‘dogs parlay. And I considered a four-legger with Diaz, Belcher, Lavar Johnson and Garza. But ultimately it’s such a low percentage play that I decided to just focus on a couple of them. I’m going heavy on Lavar Johnson. I think name recognition and a more well-rounded skill set makes Barry the favorite, but Johnson just seemed to turn a corner in Chicago and his size advantage feels like it can be put to good use. The Koscheck-Hendricks fight I really think is as close as the lines have it, and that’s why they haven’t moved much. I almost stayed away from this one altogether, but ultimately it came down to a coin flip and Hendricks won. Castillo and Vemola I feel good about, enough to put a little extra scratch on ’em to profit an even $10 on each. And my favorites parlay? I’m already counting that money.
MattE’s Individual Wagers
Hendricks (-125): $10 to win $18
L. Johnson (+170): $40 to win $108
Castillo (-140): $14 to win $24
Vemola (-125): $12.50 to win $22.50
MattE’s Parlay Wagers
Diaz (+180), L. Johnson (+170): $13.50 to win $102.06
Ferguson (-270), Dodson (-500), Hathaway (-235), Lineker (-320), Denis (-250): $10 to win $43.07
Total potential earnings: $317.63
Nate “Boiler Up” Lawson
Last event’s record: 2-2 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall record: 3-5 singles, 1-2 parlays. Overall bank: Up $51.37
Last event recap: Lawson was a John Alessio upset away from a giant parlay win, but it didn’t happen. But he did hit nicely with his upset picks of Matt Brown and Eddie Yagin. Those two let him finish ahead for the week by $10.50.
My underdog picks at UFC 145 did all right, mostly thanks to Mr. Yagin (appreciate it, Eddie), and I’m looking for more of the same and a little bit more on top of that in my underdogs for this card. Alan Belcher is the only steep underdog in my individual bets. But I knew before the odds even came out that I was picking Belcher, so I am thrilled that he has almost a 2.5-to-1 payout. As far as I’m concerned, Belcher hasn’t lost since 2008 (come on – he beat Akiyama) and he has the type of mentality that doesn’t allow losing. I’ll keep the next ones quick. Bermudez has lost three straight via submission, and I happen to remember Garza vs. Jabouin. Lavar Johnson has mad power, but is prone to submissions. Thankfully, Barry doesn’t have any and I remember when Kongo knocked him out cold. Josh Koscheck has a serious chip on his shoulder, bigger than his usual chip, and, let’s be honest, he really needs this win if he wants to be in the title mix anytime soon. As far as the parlays are concerned, I’m going straight favorites in the first one, which I think has a solid chance of hitting. The second parlay is not as conservative, but the odds could turn $10 into a big figure.
Nate’s Individual Wagers
Koscheck (-105): $10 to win $19.52
Belcher (+225): $30 to win $97.50
L. Johnson (+170): $10 to win $27
Garza (+145): $20 to win $49
Nate’s Parlay Wagers
Jim Miller (-230), Tony Ferguson (-270), John Hathaway (-235), Danny Castillo (-140), Karlos Vemola (-125): $20 to win $172.98
Alan Belcher (+225), Tim Elliott (+350), John Cholish (+110): $10 to win $307.13
Total potential earnings: $673.13
Duane “Buffalo Nickel” Finley
Last event’s record: 3-1 singles, 0-1 parlays. Overall record: 4-4 singles, 0-2 parlays. Overall bank: Down $67.51.
Last event recap: Finley needed a nice comeback, and he mostly got it. Had Rashad Evans pulled the upset over Jon Jones, Finley was gonna be set for a long time with a parlay hit of nearly $2,000. But almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Still, he hit three of his four singles and finished ahead by $18.05.
I usually get all wordy with my intro, but this round I’m getting my mean mug on. Due to the rules, I couldn’t bet the house on one fight – and that’s probably for the best because I looked everywhere on this card and couldn’t find a line on Paul Harris. Since that is the case, I’m going to spread it around this time and let the chips (and 4-ounce gloves) fall where they may.
Duane’s Individual Wagers
Miller (-225): $20 to win $28.89
Belcher (+225): $30 to win $97.50
M. Johnson (+210): $20 to win $62
Hathaway (-220): $10 to win $14.55
Duane‘s Parlay Wager
Belcher (+225), Barry (-200), Lineker (-320): $20 to win $127.97
Total potential earnings: $330.91
* Must wager an even $100 per event
* Must pick a minimum of four individual fights per event
* Must pick a minimum of one parlay per event, with a minimum of two fights; 10-fight maximum
* Must wager a minimum of $10 per individual fight or parlay with a $50 maximum
* Records and (fictional) money totals will accumulate throughout year
* Winning bets include original wager. For example, a $27.50 win on a $10 bet would include the original wager, plus a $17.50 profit
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