DraftKings NFL Football: Week 1 Running Backs Salary Analysis

Packers running back Eddie Lacy faces the Bears in Week 1. (Getty)

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We all know how important running backs are in the world of fantasy football.

Especially in one-week fantasy leagues like DraftKings, where picking the correct one can be the difference between thousands of dollars and zero dollars.

DraftKings has already rolled out a ton of fantasy football contests for Week 1 and all the player salaries are available. As is with every salary cap-based fantasy game, there are players who will be overpriced, some will be undervalued and then there will be total bargains.

In this post, we’ll be breaking down the prices of the running backs and hopefully narrow your pool of legitimate candidates for Week 1.

Of course we’re still 3 weeks away from the start of the regular season and lots can happen between now and then. But let’s not think about that right now.

And another note, DraftKings’ football contests begin on Sunday, September 13, so you won’t see any players available from the Steelers-Patriots Thursday night opener.

Bookmark our fantasy football rankings 2015 page to keep up-to-date on the latest projections and rankings heading into the season.

Keep reading for a breakdown and analysis of DraftKings’ Week 1 running back salaries:

$7,000 & Up

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: at Texans, $7,900 — Charles’ touches have decreased in each of the past 3 seasons. And it hasn’t been subtle. The Chiefs also want to work Knile Davis in more. While Charles is capable of a 200-yard, 2-touchdown performance at any time, there are probably better bargains out there.

Matt Forte, Bears: vs. Packers, $7,800 — Forte is a DraftKings superstar because he catches so many passes (+1 point for each reception). With Brandon Marshall out of town, I expect that trend to continue. In 2 games vs. Green Bay in 2014, he scored 25 and 11 fantasy points. Forte is an attractive option for sure, but I’d like a few more TDs.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings: at 49ers, $7,700 — Coming off an all-around forgettable 2014, Peterson is looking to get back in the good graces of fantasy owners. When healthy, All Day is a fantasy beast, never scoring less than double-digit TDs. San Fran was pretty stingy against the run in 2014, but they lost a lot on that side of the ball. Peterson will likely be widely-used in DraftKings Week 1.

Eddie Lacy, Packers: at Bears, $7,500 — Will the Packers’ passing game suffer because of Jordy Nelson’s injury? They won’t be the Browns in that department, but they will likely take a step back. Does that mean more work for Lacy? I bet it does, especially in the ever-important passing game. He caught 42 last year and could get into the 50s in ’15. He’s on my short list to use.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: at Rams, $7,300 — Don’t get me wrong, I love Lynch. But I’m not crazy about his Week 1 matchup vs. a rising Rams defense. He was so-so at best against St. Louis last season, 17.6 and 9.1 fantasy point games. Lynch has 48 rushing touchdowns the past 4 seasons and only 16 of them have come on the road.

LeSean McCoy, Bills: vs. Colts, $7,200 — McCoy has been slowed by a hamstring injury most of camp, but is expected to be ready for the season-opener. We know Rex Ryan likes to run it and the Colts have been soft up front lately. But that hamstring, though. A situation worth monitoring over the next few weeks.

Jeremy Hill, Bengals: at Raiders, $7,100 — Hill’s opponent is tantalizing as the Raiders are always accommodating to opposing running backs. Though with Gio Bernard still in the mix, $7,100 might be a bit steep for the one-dimensional Hill. I’m likely going elsewhere.

C.J. Anderson, Broncos: vs. Ravens, $7,000 — From Week 10 on, Anderson was a fantasy machine, as are most running backs who play with Peyton Manning. The Ravens, though, were the toughest defense for RBs to score on in DraftKings in 2014. I’m leaning Manning and one of his receivers for Week 1, but probably holding off on Anderson.

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$6,000-$6,900

DeMarco Murray, Eagles: at Falcons, $6,700 — This is a low price for a guy who led all RBs in DraftKings scoring in 2014. Murray, though, was playing behind the league’s best offensive line in Dallas and was a major part of the passing game. Neither will be the case now he’s in Philadelphia. Still, though, the Falcons were putrid vs. opposing backs last year. Murray is on my mind heading into Week 1.

Andre Ellington, Cardinals: vs. Saints, $6,400 — Ellington has shown he can’t handle a full workload as he’s constantly banged up. Despite the Saints’ seemingly allergic reaction to running backs, I can’t see Ellington getting much more than 15 touches (they want to keep him fresh all year). And especially now with veteran Chris Johnson and rookie David Johnson in the fold. Monitor the situation.

Justin Forsett, Ravens: at Broncos, $6,200 — Forsett is an intriguing Week 1 option. Good price, valuable in the passing game (44 catches in 2014) and gets a so-so Broncos defense. This one could be a shootout, so I’ll be studying Forsett intently over the next few weeks.

$5,000-$5,900

Joseph Randle, Cowboys: vs. Giants, $5,900 — Right off the bat, a super sleeper. I like Randle better than Darren McFadden, an offseason acquisition. Randle can be DeMarco Murray Light behind that stud Cowboys offensive line. Good price, favorable matchup. I’m just worried D-Mac will cut into the carries — in Week 1, at least. So I’m likely looking elsewhere.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: at Jaguars, $5,800 — With Kelvin Benjamin out for the year (ACL), the Panthers might attack more on the ground. Stewart, though, is far from a sure-thing because of injuries. But for Week 1 vs. the Jags? That’s tempting. Very tempting. A situation I’ll be monitoring the next couple weeks.

Latavius Murray, Raiders: vs. Bengals, $5,700 — The physical talent is there, but he is Week 1 gamble. Murray can take it to the house on any given snap and the likely starter. But is he worth the gamble in Week 1? I’d bet Murray is going to be widely-owned that first Sunday.

Mark Ingram, Saints: at Cardinals, $5,600 — Ingram had a breakout season in 2014 and will get early-down carries before giving way to C.J. Spiller. Nice price, but not a huge fan of the matchup vs. Arizona. There are better options.

Alfred Morris, Redskins: vs. Dolphins, $5,500 — The Dolphins really helped their rush D with the Ndamukong Suh addition. This is a great price for Morris as he’s expected to get the majority of the carries, but I’m a little hesitant as the Redskins’ offense doesn’t seem very trustworthy right now. And that Miami defense has the potential to be nasty out of the gate.

Lamar Miller, Dolphins: at Redskins, $5,500 — Miller is the clear-cut starter, but didn’t have a single game with over 20 carries last season. That’s not what you from your starting DraftKings running back. Sure, that was last year and Miller could log more. But, either way, Washington was one of the better units vs. opposing RBs in 2014.

Melvin Gordon, Chargers: vs. Lions, $5,400 — As mentioned above, the Lions lost Suh to the Dolphins and no team was better than Detroit at stopping the run in 2014. The Lions did bring in Haloti Ngata to replace Suh, but the former Raven is in danger of missing Week 1 with a hamstring issue. If that’s the case, Gordon could be a good play. Watch the Ngata situation before making any decision.

T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars: vs. Panthers, $5,500 — Yeldon is listed as the No. 1 back on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean much right now. Even if he does get the start, Yeldon will cede carries to Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart. Too risky for Week 1.

Frank Gore, Colts: at Bills, $5,400 — The Bills front 7 is pretty stacked. In fact, the whole defense is. Gore isn’t cracking my Top 20 picks for Week 1.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers: vs. Vikings, $5,300 — Gore’s San Francisco replacement, Carlos Hyde, looks the part of a breakout back. Big and strong, he can move the pile, but also break the long run. The 49ers lost a major piecee of their O-Line, but Hyde can expect a heavy Week 1 workload. He’ll be replaced by Reggie Bush on passing downs, though. Hyde’s got my attention vs. the Vikings, a below-average unit.

Rashad Jennings, Giants: at Cowboys, $5,100 — The oft-injured Jennings is still the No. 1 Giants back, but the team already has Andre Williams and added Shane Vereen. I smell a committee. I hate committees. You should, too.

Tre Mason, Rams: vs. Seahawks, $5,000 — Will Todd Gurley play or not? Right now we don’t know. Doesn’t matter, I’m not playing either against Seattle and that rush defense.

$5,000 & Below

There are some bargains to be found in this price range, and that’s exactly what you want in DraftKings. If you can find a running back who will get the lion’s share of his team’s carries in Week 1 for a basement-level price, you get on that. I’m not going to go over every running back here, just the ones of note, which include sleepers and those to stay away from.

Tevin Coleman, Falcons: vs. Eagles, $4,800 — Coleman has basically missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury. He’s just too uncertain right now as he’ll likely be splitting time with Devonta Freeman anyway.

Todd Gurley, Rams: vs. Seahawks, $4,800 — Gurley just started practicing, he’s coming an ACL injury, he likely be capped at 15 carries and he’s facing the Seahawks. That’s the recipe for Sit Him Pie.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: vs. Titans, $4,500 — Martin has looked determined so far in the preseason. Perhaps after 2 down years he’s ready to join us at the adult fantasy football table? I like the looks of this matchup vs. the Titans, who appeared to be playing two-hand touch football last year. They couldn’t stop anyone. Martin should be a productive play.

Bishop Sankey, Titans: at Buccaneers, $4,300 — Sankey is the starter and the Buccaneers aren’t exactly known for their run-stopping ability. But you probably need to know some serious inside information if you’re throwing Sankey and plodding ways out there in Week 1.

Chris Ivory, Jets: vs. Browns, $4,100 — Ivory could be a Week 1 gem. The Browns front 7 is average-at-best and we know the Jets aren’t going to be slinging it around all game with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don’t be shocked to see Ivory get 20 carries in the first game and any goal line totes. You know, if the Jets get that close.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions: at Chargers, $4,000: Even though Abdullah has shown flashes of electric play, he’ll be in a timeshare when Joique Bell returns. Not liking that for Week 1.

Alfred Blue, Texans: vs. Chiefs, $3,600 — With Arian Foster out, Blue gets the green light as the starter. That price is unbelievable for a guy expected to get 20 touches. The Chiefs gave up a ton of yards to opposing RBs in 2014, but just 4 TDs. That won’t happen this year. If Blue is the unquestioned starter that price might be too low to pass up.

We’ll call it there for now, but there might be some diamonds who pop up along the way as there are still 2 weeks left of preseason. But with running backs you want guys who are going to get the ball (remember, receptions are a worth a point, too). You can get lucky with a player in a committee, but those are so tough to figure. You also need a good amount of luck for that.

During the week leading up to opening Sunday, I’ll do another examination and let you know my top picks on who to play.

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