UNC vs. Duke Odds: Point Spread, Total & Prediction

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For all the weird stuff that has been going on at Duke this year, from the injuries, to the tripping controversies to losing their Hall of Fame head coach to back surgery for seven games, the No. 18 Blue Devils still enter Thursday’s anticipated contest against No. 8 North Carolina as a slight favorite.

The best rivalry in college basketball tends to transcend the odds, but it’s still worth a look anyways.

Here’s a rundown of all the betting info you need to know:

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Information

Note: All odds and numbers courtesy of OddsShark.com

Date: Thursday, February 9, 2017

Spread: Duke (-2)

Moneyline: North Carolina (+105), Duke (-125)

Over/Under: 164

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction

Beating North Carolina often comes down to a team’s ability to keep the Heels off the glass. Per Ken Pomeroy, UNC grabs a whopping 42.8 percent of its own misses, easily the best mark in the nation. With Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks down low, and key freshman Tony Bradley coming off the bench, Roy Williams’ squad typically has too much size for other teams to handle. And if Theo Pinson (questionable) returns, that’s just another big body to deal with.

Duke, though, has the personnel to at least compete underneath the basket. Amile Jefferson is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country, while talented freshmen Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles–though sometimes inconsistent, especially Giles–offer size and athleticism. Overall, the Blue Devils rank a decent 79th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, though that number took a hit when they gave up 25 total offensive rebounds in the two games without Jefferson in mid-January.

If the Heels control the offensive glass, they’ll be incredibly tough to beat. But if the Blue Devils are able to minimize Carolina’s impact in that facet, they should have an advantage. They own a better effective field-goal percentage offense (55.0 to 52.6), a better effective field-goal percentage defense (47.3 to 48.7), and Mike Krzyzewski has had Roy Williams’ number throughout this rivalry.

Ultimately, this one could easily go either way, but with North Carolina sitting at just 2-7 against the spread away from home this year, I’ll go with Duke in a close one.

Prediction: Duke 84, North Carolina 80