The season has ended and the projected NBA draft order has been set. Fans know that is only the beginning of the process as it does not guarantee a particular spot but a bad record increases your odds of landing the number one pick. The Boston Celtics, through the Brooklyn Nets, have a 25 percent chance of landing the top selection. This means even as the team with the most ping-pong balls, there is a 75 percent probability they do not get the number one pick. This is what makes the "tanking" philosophy so volatile is the results are not guaranteed.
Proponents point to the Philadelphia 76ers as tanking gone right, but could just as easily look at the Orlando Magic who have been stuck in neutral thanks in part to some unfortunate luck in the lottery. Over the years, the Magic missed out on players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins among others by not winning the lottery. Former GM Rob Hennigan made his fair share of bad moves but there is a chance he could still have his job if the Magic were able to win the NBA lottery in one of his five years as general manager. Instead, the Magic had to fire Hennigan who was never able to turn the corner for a franchise that was in a constant state of rebuilding under his watch. NBA general managers that are looking to rebuild their teams need a combination of great talent evaluation in addition to some good fortune in the lottery to pull off a successful rebuild. For this mock draft, Heavy simulated the lottery , and the Suns were the lucky winners. Meanwhile, the Celtics were not as fortunate dropping all the way down to fourth. Fans can go to Tankathon to see what the order ends up being when you simulate the lottery. Click the arrow on the right side of the page to see Heavy's latest mock draft with a draft order based on a simulated lottery. (Getty)
No. 1 Phoenix Suns: PG Markelle Fultz
School: Washington
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'4"/195 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 23.2 ppg, 5.9 apg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.2 bpg, .476 FG%, .413 3P%
Outlook: The Suns move up one spot to win the lottery in our simulation. Fultz fits in the best for Phoenix as he has more position flexibility than Lonzo Ball. As Sports Illustrated's Andrew Sharp points out, there is a temptation to paint Fultz as the anti-Lonzo Ball as the draft approaches. While Ball has been making his media rounds since the college basketball season ended, Fultz has been laying low. Fultz seems okay with a friendly rivalry between the two guards. "He's going to be a great guard in the league," Fultz told Sports Illustrated. “He's going to be [playing] my position, so... if he happens to be the point guard I'm going against, then yeah, I want to get him out the way." Fultz is not without his questions, primarily why he was not able to help Washington win more games along with his decision to shut things down with an injury at the end of the season. (Getty)
No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers: PG Lonzo Ball
School: UCLA
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'6"/190 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 14.6 ppg, 7.6 apg, 6.0 rpg, .551 FG%, .412 3P%
Outlook: Ball gets his wish and lands with the Lakers as Los Angeles moves up a spot in the simulation. Ball made the media rounds once the season was completed. He is doing his part to vouch for his ability over Fultz's skills. "Markelle's a great player, but I feel I'm better than him. I think I can lead a team better than him," Ball told ESPN. "Obviously he's a great scorer -he's a great player, so I'm not taking that away from him." Ball is more of a traditional point guard than Fultz and does have the edge when it comes to court vision (this does not mean Fultz is not a great passer). Fans will find out in about two months what NBA teams think when it comes to choosing between the two prospects. (Getty)
No. 3 Orlando Magic: SF/SG Josh Jackson
School: Kansas
Position: Small Forward/Shooting Guard
Size: 6'8"/207 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, .513 FG%, .378 3P%
Outlook: The Magic were the biggest beneficiaries from our simulation moving up from the five spot. That said, I'm not convinced there is a massive gap between Jackson and players like Jayson Tatum and De'Aaron Fox. Both of those players would still be in play even if the Magic move up in the lottery. Jackson gives the Magic a competitive, well-rounded player who can contribute immediately to the Magic's offensive struggles. Jackson also has the defensive intensity that Frank Vogel will love. This draft pick will depend a lot on who the Magic bring in as the next general manager.to take over for a fired Rob Hennigan. As with most teams that make unsuccessful hires, look for the Magic to try to compensate by going in the opposite direction and hiring an experienced GM. (Getty)
No. 4 Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum
School: Duke
Position: Small Forward
Size: 6'8"/205 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg. .452 FG%, .342 3P%
Outlook: For months, we have assumed the Celtics will win the lottery given the Nets were the leader in the clubhouse to finish with the worst record. Brooklyn did their part by giving the Celtics the best chance to win the lottery at 25 percent odds. While they do have the best odds, that leaves a 75 percent probability Boston will land another pick. Celtics fans should prepare themselves to not win the lottery even though they stand the best chance. Tatum gives Boston a legit scoring option to take the pressure off Isaiah Thomas. The Celtics could also use his rebounding ability. Don't count out Malik Monk from being considered by the Celtics if they end up falling farther than they expect in the lottery. (Getty)
No. 5 Philadelphia Sixers: PG De'Aaron Fox
School: Kentucky
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'3"/187 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.7 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 spg, .479 FG%, .246 3P%
Outlook: The Sixers drop a spot in the simulation, but it still works out in the end. Philadelphia is able to land Fox to bolster the point guard position. Fox could emerge as a player that's considered by teams as the next player off the board after Fultz and Ball. Keep in mind most of these teams (with the exception of the Celtics) have a losing culture which is why they are picking high in the draft. Fox paired with Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric sounds like a roster created off NBA2K17. Philadelphia has had some unfortunate luck with injuries. If they can get their core players healthy at the same time, this a group with playoff potential with the addition of Fox. (Getty)
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves: PF Lauri Markkanen
School: Arizona
Position: Power Forward
Size: 7'0"/230 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 15.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, .492 FG%, .423 3P%
Outlook: Markkanen and the T-Wolves are a good fit. I continue to love the pairing of Markkanen with Karl-Anthony Towns as Towns' strengths compliment Markkanen's weaknesses. The key to Markkanen's future is his ability to improve his rebounding and defense. However, his key to getting on the court right away will be his shooting ability. He is the best shooting big man we have seen come out in quite some time. Markkanen should benefit from a limited number of quality big men in this draft class. Malik Monk could be considered here as well, but not sure how he fits in with Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Markkanen makes the most sense and adds to a scary good group in Minnesota. (Getty)
No. 7 New York Knicks: SG Malik Monk
School: Kentucky
Position: Shooting Guard
Size: 6'3"/200 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 19.8 ppg, 2.3 apg, 2.5 rpg, 0.9 spg, .450 FG%, .397 3P%
Outlook: Just when you think things cannot get more dysfunctional in New York, Phil Jackson holds a postseason press conference where he essentially goes public with the idea that Carmelo Anthony needs to move on to another team. After that, Kristaps Porzingis skipped his exit interview as a protest to all that is wrong with the Knicks. If the NBA had a Hard Knocks series like the NFL, the Knicks would undoubtedly be high on the list for fans to be entertained by their organizational turmoil. The good news for Knicks fans is they will have a high draft pick in June. Malik Monk is a perfect fit for the Knicks and would be a great player to pair with Porzingis. (Getty)
No. 8 Sacramento Kings: PG Dennis Smith Jr.
School: NC State
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'3"/195 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 18.1 ppg, 6.2 apg, 4.6 rpg, .455 FG%, .359 3P%
Outlook: Things are looking up for the Kings. If all goes as planned, Sacramento will have two picks in the top ten. They freed themselves from a contentious situation with Boogie Cousins who was not leading their team to wins on the court. Additionally, they will not have to pay up to keep him as they would have felt obligated to offer him a mega-extension. Dennis Smith is the best player on the board at this point in the draft. If Smith is surrounded by the right coaching staff, he has the potential to be a bright, young point guard. The downside is fans saw what happened when that was not the case at the end of the NC State season. (Getty)
No. 9 Dallas Mavericks: SF Jonathan Isaac
School: Florida State
Position: Small Forward
Size: 6'10"/210 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 12.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, .508 FG%, .348 3P%
Outlook: If the draft plays out like we have predicted, the Mavs will likely be choosing between two players if they end up with the No. 9 pick. The Mavs have shown a propensity for selecting international player, and Frank Ntilikina is in play here. Dallas might prefer the upside that Isaac offers them. He was once mentioned as a potential top-five pick but that seems unlikely at this point. Isaac's best basketball is ahead of him, but it is unclear how high his ceiling is. What we do know is he can play both forward positions and will be able to contribute in a few different categories when he enters the league. (Getty)
No. 10 Sacramento Kings: F Zach Collins
School: Gonzaga
Position: Power Forward
Size: 7'0"/230 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 10.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg, .652 FG% (17.2 minutes per game)
Outlook: The Kings have a lot of control when it comes to how the lottery plays out with two likely top-10 picks. We have them taking Dennis Smith with their first pick which makes Frank Ntilikina less likely here. Collins is one of the more intriguing players in the draft given he had limited minutes at Gonzaga but did make the most of his opportunities. Collins has great post moves and the ability to block shots as his 1.8 blocks in about 17 minutes per game shows. Adding Collins to the mix with Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein could give Sacramento their front court of the future as they continue to rebuild their team without DeMarcus Cousins. (Getty)
No. 11 Charlotte Hornets: C/F Jarrett Allen
School: Texas
Position: Center/Forward
Size: 6'11"/235 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 13.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg, .8 apg, .566 FG%
Outlook: Based on the Hornets roster, I still think they take a strong look at a big man here. Allen has the most potential of any big man left on the board as he showed against Kansas in January with 22 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks. Allen has not shown three-point range that many NBA teams are looking for in today's player. Allen is an energy player and does most of his damage around the basket. He is a solid shot blocker but would like to see that number slightly higher than 1.5 per game. (Getty)
No. 12 Detroit Pistons: PG/SG Frank Ntilikina
School: Strasbourg (International)
Position: Guard
Size: 6'5"/170 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 4.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, .506 FG%, .457 3P% (16.5 minutes per game)
Outlook: The Reggie Jackson experiment has not gone as planned. Jackson still has two more years left on his deal and is slated to make just over $17 million next season making him very difficult to trade. Bringing in Ntilikina could put pressure on Jackson to be more efficient. It also helps he is the best player remaining on the board as the Pistons finished off a disappointing season where many expected them to make the playoffs. The pressure is on Stan Van Gundy to turn things around next season. (Getty)
No. 13 Denver Nuggets: F Justin Jackson
School: North Carolina
Position: Forward
Size: 6'8"/210 pounds
Class: Junior
2016-17 Stats: 18.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, .447 FG%, .380 3P%
Outlook: Love the value the Nuggets are getting here with Jackson getting pass over by younger players who are viewed to have more potential. Jackson would be able to come in and contribute immediately in Denver. He pairs nicely with the young core of Nuggets players who are capable of making the playoffs next season as they almost did this season. Jackson improved shooting, scoring and defensive ability should keep him inside the lottery when the draft rolls around. (Getty)
No. 14 Miami Heat: PF John Collins
School: Wake Forest
Position: Power Forward
Size: 6'10"/235 pounds
Class: Sophomore
2016-17 Stats: 19.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg, .622 FG%
Outlook: For the second straight mock draft, we have Collins going to the Heat. Love the pairing of Collins with Hassan Whiteside. The Heat could have done damage if they made the playoffs this season with the way they were playing after the All-Star break. Look for Miami to make the playoffs next season, and Collins could play a key role on that team. He is a sophomore which puts him farther along than some of the other prospects in the draft. Collins may not be a stretch-four that many teams are coveting, but he is strong down low on the blocks. (Getty)
NBA Mock Draft 2017: Predictions After Simulated Lottery