Jaguars vs. Patriots Odds: Point Spread, Total & Prediction

Getty Leonard Fournette was the definition of a workhorse back against Pittsburgh.

The Patriots are in the AFC Championship for the seventh straight season. The Jaguars don’t care.

The most experienced team in the NFL hosts one of the youngest on Sunday for a trip to Super Bowl 52. The Patriots are a 7.5-point favorite according to OddsShark, but 52 percent of the action is on the Jaguars. The total is set at 46, with 54 percent of bettors taking the over.

The Jaguars are 12-6 this season, but are only 10-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Patriots are once again the public favorite, and have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 contests.

It’s a cliche, but throw the records out on Sunday. History is not kind to the Jaguars, and Tom Brady has not been kind to them either. Brady is 7-0 lifetime against the Jaguars with 17 TD passes and two interceptions. The Jaguars are 1-10 lifetime against the Patriots.

Obviously, this is a wildly different Jaguars team than any in the Tom Brady era. Jacksonville wants to hit Brady and his injured hand, so expect lots of quick throwing when the Patriots take to the air. Jaguars corners should have no problem in this matchup, but it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Rob Gronkowski. Jacksonville doesn’t have a player with the size to cover Gronk alone, and he could be the difference-maker for the Patriots.

Of course, none of this will matter if the Patriots can slow down Leonard Fournette. Without a consistent run game, Blake Bortles has zero chance to become an effective passer against New England. Virtually all of his throws were preceded by some form of fake last week, and the Patriots will likely stack the box against Fournette early and often.

When Bortles has the ball, don’t expect a big pass rush from New England. Much like last week against the Titans, the Patriots will scheme out Bortles’ rushing ability. This will force Bortles to make throws downfield into coverage, something he has struggled with his entire career. However, if the Jaguars can connect on big plays, it would be tremendous for their chances. This season, the Jaguars are 9-1 in games where they complete a pass of 30 yards or longer.

Jaguars vs. Patriots Prediction

It really all comes down to Blake Bortles. The Patriots are notorious for taking away their opponent’s best offensive weapon, and that means a crowded box for Fournette. If the Jaguars can’t run, they could be in big trouble early. This team is not built to play from behind.

Talk all you want about Brady’s hand; he’s fine. The Patriots are as strong as ever, but the Jaguars defense will do their best to keep the game close. Tom Brady does not turn the ball over like Ben Roethlisberger, so don’t expect the big early lead again for Jacksonville.

Mistakes. Young teams make them. Super Bowl teams do not. All that’s left now is to see if the Jaguars are grown enough.

Heavy’s Pick: Jaguars 16, Patriots 31. Patriots Cover -7.5 Spread. Over on the Point Total.