Mexico takes on Germany in one of the marquee matches of the World Cup’s opening week. According to OddsShark, Germany is a solid favorite to win at -217. A draw is the next likely outcome at +310, while Mexico winning is a distant third at +620. The latest spread has Germany as a one goal favorite. The over-under is set at 2.5 goals. Public money is heavy on Germany at 69 percent.
There is a reason Germany is a heavy favorite in this match. Germany won the 2014 World Cup, and finished in third place in the previous two World Cups. They are as close as it comes to a soccer machine. Mexico has not been able to get past the Round of 16 in over 30 years. The flip side of that is El Tri has advanced past the group stage in six straight World Cups, which is no small feat.
To put it in perspective, Germany’s chances to win the World Cup (+475) is greater than Mexico’s chances of winning Group F (+500). Mexico has 80 to 1 odds to win the whole thing. Mexico has never defeated Germany in international play.
Mexico does have a talented roster that is a nice mix of veterans like Andres Guardado and Chicharito Hernandez mixed with young striker Hirving “Chucky” Lozano. Some think Lozano could be the story of the tournament, including his own teammates.
“I believe that ‘Chucky’ [Lozano] could be the revelation of the World Cup because he has grown,” Mexican teammate Erick Gutierrez noted to ESPN. “We’ve known each other since we were young, he’s very daring regardless of who the opponent is and we hope he has a great World Cup and helps Mexico to advance.”
As Four Four Two notes, Germany is missing top veterans like Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose. This gives Mexico a better chance than most years, but Germany still has a solid returning core. Thomas Muller, Toni Kroos and Msut Ozil are still there to anchor the team. Germany has proven over the years they are more than capable of reloading as well.
Mexico has a strong midfield, and will be relying on the unit to keep them in the match against Germany. Lozano is the ex-factor, but is also a wild card with his lack of World Cup experience.
The OddsShark computer projects a 2.7 to .6 Germany win. The computer is taking Germany to cover the spread, and the over on the point total.
Mexico’s defense can keep them in the game early on, but look for Germany to open things up in the second half. Even with the loss of some of the familiar names, Germany still has one of the most loaded rosters of any team in the tournament. While I like both of these two teams to advance out of the group, today is likely to be Germany’s day, but Mexico has a realistic chance of winning their next two matches.
Heavy’s Pick: Germany 3 Mexico 1. Germany to Cover the Spread. Over on the Point Total.