Stanley Cup Game 4 Odds: Prediction & Betting Pick

Getty Braden Holtby saved 21 of 22 shots in Game 3.

The Stanley Cup Final resumes action Monday night, with the Washington Capitals looking to take firm control of the series. The first Stanley Cup game in Washington in 20 years was a rousing success over the weekend, as the Caps looked the more energetic team en route to a 3-1 victory.

Monday’s Game 4 odds are not drastically different from Game 3. The Capitals are still a narrow moneyline favorite (-115), and a big underdog when giving 1.5 goals (+255).

When it comes to the series price, the Capitals are now firmly in control as favorites. As we noted after Game 3, when a seven-game Stanley Cup Final series starts 1-1, the Game 3 winner takes the series over 70 percent of the time. At OddsShark, the Capitals are priced at -230 to hoist the Cup, while the Knights are still holding on as a +190 underdog.

Stanley Cup Game 4 Prediction

Ok, so the Golden Knights have been around for less than a year, but is it too early to ask for the “Old” Knights to come back? On Saturday, Vegas did not match the style of play that led to their improbable success. They were less aggressive on the forecheck, and had a series-high 26 shots blocked by Capitals. The Capitals have seen great results from both their goalie and top line, two things that haven’t delivered for Vegas in this series.

The Capitals are seeing Alex Ovechkin at his best. Ovi had eight shots in the first period of Game 3, and while the period ended scoreless, it set the tone for the rest of the game.

Of course, we can’t immediately write off Las Vegas. The loss in Game 3 mirrored their road loss to Winnipeg in multiple ways, including their lack of production and the narrative that followed. The Vegas Knights are not “done,” but it’s once again clear they must stick to their strategy against a more talented side.

In order to bounce back, Vegas must register more shots on goal. Braden Holtby only needed 21 saves to win on Saturday, and his one goal allowed was entirely self-inflicted. Washington set the tone early by blocking 15 shots in the first period, but that cannot stop Vegas from playing aggressive and getting off quality shots.

Throughout the playoffs, Vegas has been at their best after consecutive losses. Vegas has won four straight games after consecutive losses, and they are 8-3 total in their inaugural season in this situation.

Stanley Cup Game 4 Best Bets

Numbers are leaning heavily on the under for this game. The under has hit in four of six for Vegas, and the Capitals have outscored 7-1 in their last two home games. That being said, I’m expecting Vegas to step things up on offense tonight, knowing they need a win to even serve heading back to Vegas.

Vegas is a scrappy team that has played best when counted out. I’m riding with Vegas tonight, and taking a hard look at the over.