UFC Odds: Alvarez vs. Poirier Pick & More

Getty Jose Aldo is a slight favorite over Jeremy Stephens on Saturday night.

UFC returns to network television Saturday night, as the 30th edition of UFC on Fox goes live from Canada. Its a loaded card for a free event, including a rematch of one of the most controversial fights in recent memory.

Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Porier were in the midst of a war at UFC 211, when knees from Alvarez on a downed Poirier caused the fight to be ruled a no contest. It had been a wild figjht up to that point, as Poirier appeared to have Alvarez on the ropes before getting tagged himself.

That was over a year ago, and now the fighters are back for an explosive rematch. Poirier has done nothing but improve since the first meeting, and he’s a -150 odds favorite heading into Saturday.

That’s one of three fights worth wagering on this evening. Here are our picks for UFC on Fox 30:

Main Event: Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier

As stated above, Poirier has continued to roll after his no contest against Alvarez. He has two knockouts since then, improving his record to 23 wins and five losses. His knockouts were over Justin Gaethje and Anthony Pettis, two real fighters. I expect Poirier to continue to roll, as he was still a great matchup against Alvarez in the first fight. Alvarez is a brawler, and will expose himself to too many open shots. That’s what happened in the first fight, and Alvarez survived by throwing a few wild shots to stun Poirier. That could happen again, but I think Poirier will be better prepared and finish the job this time around.

Co-Main: José Aldo vs. Jeremy Stephens

Jose Aldo looks to bounce back from two knockout losses to Max Holloway when he takes on Jeremy Stehpens. Aldo is still the number two ranked featherweight, despite losing three of his last four fights. Stephens has won three straight fights, including knocking out Josh Emmett in February. He’s got more power, and I just don’t see Aldo as a title contender anymore. Aldo is a slight favorite, but I like the power of Stephens to win out.

Women Strawweight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Tecia Torres

Torres has the power, but Joanna has the experience. Jedrzejczyk has been fighting five round fights since 2015. Now she gets to use her conditioning to her advantage against Tecia Torres, who has won three of her last four fights. She’s a worthy competitor, but Joanna is going to be so much more prepared for this fight. She’s also a more technical fighter, and can avoid the hard hits of Torres and win out with pace. She’s a massive favorite, but can be easily parlayed with Poirier and others for a payday.