Getty Gallery: 4/5
Captain Joe Mixon – No. 2
CAPTAIN: Joe Mixon $14,700
– A.J. Green $10,400
– Alex Collins $9,000
– John Brown $6,600
– Javorius Allen $5,400
– Bengals DST $3,200
Before going any further, I'll clear up the topic surrounding Javorius Allen – he's going to be in the bulk of my lineups. If loading up in the 150-max games, he'd probably be in around 70-80 percent of my lineups. The main reason is due to his floor as a pass-catcher paired with the fact that he's incredibly cheap, so using him opens everything else up.
This is the first time I used two other players in my showdown lineups as well. While I won't go over the top forcing Alex Collins or John Brown into lineups, I'm fine scattering them both into the mix for a few reasons.
When it comes to Collins, there's a very real reason to believe this game doesn't feature a ton of success through the air. The script can completely flip at any time, but we can't predict that, and simply have to go off the information we have. While Collins did fall flat last week with seven rushes for 13 yards and one touchdown (which saved his day), the game flow and Dixon's injury could allow him to see 12-14 carries.
More importantly than anything here, I believe Collins' ownership is going to be somewhat low due to his $9,000 price tag. In turn, if we can see him rush for 60 yards and one or two touchdowns (one is realistic) at low ownership, then we get an edge on the field. I'll only use Collins probably 5-10 percent of my lineups, but he's worth getting in a few spots just to be safe. Plus, using Collins and Allen in the same lineup will be a unique approach.
I actually like Brown quite a bit as a player and a fit in the Ravens offense. I think he provides a great deep threat for Flacco, and as we saw last week he can be a red zone target as well potentially. My biggest reason for using Brown here over Snead is the upside. While Snead provides me safety and reliability in other lineups, I want to get a player like Brown with big-play ability in a few lineups.
Since I'm building this optimal lineup around a group of players with upside, Brown and Collins are intriguing options to pair with big names like Joe Mixon and A.J. Green.
One final thought on group three Ravens offensive players with the Bengals defense involves an expectation for how the game may play out. According to Odds Shark, the line on the Thursday Night Football matchup opened with Baltimore favored by three and has moved to a pick or Cincinnati even favored in some spots. If the Bengals defense makes big plays early, we're going to get a lot of work from Allen and Brown as the game rolls on, while Collins would still have touchdown-upside. This lineup has some risk involved, but it's risk worth taking.
*All statistics for player vs. team courtesy of StatMuse.