Getty Gallery: 3/5
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Tarik Cohen ($12,900)
– Kenny Golladay ($10,600)
– Matthew Stafford ($9,400)
– Anthony Miller ($7,800)
– Chase Daniel ($6,200)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
Optimal if Trubisky plays:
– CAPTAIN: Mitchell Trubisky ($16,800)
– Matthew Stafford ($9,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($8,600)
– Theo Riddick ($7,600)
– Bears DST ($4,800)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
Tarik Cohen has a good chance to right the ship quickly here, while Jordan Howard eats into his workload and actually saw more snaps last game, I love Cohen's upside. The Bears try a variety of ways to get the ball into his hands and I expect that to be the case on Thanksgiving. The Lions have allowed 52 receptions for 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns to opposing backs this season.
While I love the Bears defense due to their high floor and affordable price tag, I do expect Matthew Stafford to have success through the air. He may not throw five touchdown passes, but he's tossed at least two scores on five of the last six Thanksgiving games. Sure, that stat doesn't have much to do with the current team or current roster, but the Lions have faced a few solid defenses over the years.
When factoring in that I believe Stafford does find the end zone a few times, it leads to Kenny Golladay potentially being worth that lofty price tag. It's somewhat surprising that Golladay is the second most expensive player on the slate (behind Trubisky), but he has arguably the highest upside of any player. I expect his touchdown stretch to move to three on Thursday and he's caught 14 passes in the past two games.
Speaking of Lions receivers, I'm a big fan of Bruce Ellington, and honestly, I've always thought he had quite a bit of talent but never received a major chance. He received that opportunity last week with a wide receiver-needy Lions team and caught 6-of-9 targets for 52 yards. It's worth noting he played fewer snaps (33 to 45) than Jones, but far outproduced him.
Ellington's price makes him incredibly appealing as it won't take a ton for him to hit value here. More importantly, I think he'll continue to see work regardless over Jones as Stafford obviously trusts his new receiver. For good measure, the Bears have allowed 148 receptions for 1,841 yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, struggling against the position.
I'll expand more on the Chase Daniel and Anthony Miller spots as we roll along, but this duo could potentially make for an interesting stack, especially when paired with Cohen. I previously mentioned the fact Daniel doesn't need a ton to hit value. If he tosses two touchdowns than this is an excellent spot and he allows you to get other expensive players into the lineup as well thanks to his price.
Let's evaluate the 150-max lineup which has multiple high-upside options, but also a bit more risk with it.