Clemson March Madness: NCAA Tournament Chances after NC State Loss

Getty Aamir Simms #25 of the Clemson Tigers reacts against Jack White #41 of the Duke Blue Devils.

Clemson has been so close to the one win necessary to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. An early February victory over No. 16 Virginia Tech was a fine start. The Tigers dropped contests to No. 12 Florida State and No. 3 North Carolina by a combined 11 points.

The ACC Tournament was the last chance to make a final impression on the selection committee. They blew it Wednesday against NC State.

The Wolfpack nipped the Tigers 59-58 to improve to 20-12 on the year and advance to the quarterfinals. Guard Marcquise Reed couldn’t do enough, notching 16 points on 4-for-7 from 3, as well as 10 rebounds and 6 assists.

A foul by Clyde Trapp gave Wolfpack guard Markell Johnson 2 fouls shots with 2.6 seconds remaining. Johnson drained them both to clinch the win.

The Wolfpack, hanging desperately onto the bubble themselves, fought from a 16-point halftime deficit.

The Tigers may have just lost an NCAA Tournament bid. Let’s take a look at the possibilities and their resume, including a peek at best wins and losses.

Clemson NCAA Tournament Resume

The Tigers have built their resume on aggregate wins over mediocre teams. In the non-conference, they have just 2 wins over teams in the top-100 of the NET rankings (Atlantic Sun champ Lipscomb and South Carolina). The win over the 16-15 Gamecocks won’t move the needle, neither will one over 11-20 Georgia.

The losses are understandable, but missed opportunities. An 11-point defeat to Mississippi State and a single-digit one to another bubble team in Creighton stings.

Clemson pretty much only beat the teams it was supposed to in the ACC. A 9-9 conference mark includes 2 wins over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh each, as well as one each over Wake Forest and Notre Dame. The Tigers did split the season series with NC State.

Clemson did finish strong with a double-digit triumph over No. 44 Syracuse.

Taking care of business against a boatload of lesser teams is sometimes just enough to sneak into March Madness. They probably needed one more win to make this case.

Clemson Bracketology Breakdown

ESPN’s John Gasaway stated entering Wednesday that the Tigers’ biggest enemy is a shrinking bubble.

The enemy for Clemson is now the rest of the bubble. After winning at home 67-55 against Syracuse in the season finale, the Tigers will be showing up on many “last four in” and, yes, “first four out” lists. That’s preferable to “next four out,” certainly, but it’s still a precarious position to occupy heading into what is always a wild and tumultuous Championship Week. Even the slightest contraction of the bubble brought about by even a single bid thief, for example, could prove calamitous to Clemson

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Tigers as one of his “Last Four In” in his latest bracketology. That would mean a trip to Dayton for the First Four, which would put them for the No. 12 seed with TCU. The Midwest Regional against No. 5 seed Auburn and possibly No. 4 seed Wisconsin would await.

CBS’s Jerry Palm presents a similar scenario but out of the South Regional against UNC-Greensboro. He did mention in his own Bubble Watch that Clemson “lacks quality wins.”

This is a double bubble game where the loser is almost certainly out of the field…Clemson’s biggest problem is a lack of quality wins, especially away from home. A win on Wednesday does not guarantee anything — for either team — but would be the Tigers best win in that category.

Bracket Matrix aggregates several prognostications from across the internet. The Gaels appeared on 110 of them, and averaged out to an 11.23. That would mean either an 11 or 12-seed.

It’s pretty simple. Clemson needs to pray.