LSU March Madness: Updated NCAA Tournament Prediction for Tigers

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Tremont Waters #3 of the LSU Tigers takes a shot as he falls forward after losing his balance during the second half of the game against the Michigan Wolverines.

Two seasons ago, Will Wade took over the reins of the LSU Tigers from Johnny Jones. Coming off a 10-21 campaign in 2017, Wade guided the program to an 18-15 debut and an invitation to the NIT. Behind the scoring of point guard Tremont Waters, the Tigers are punching higher in 2019.

They are currently tied with Tennessee for first place in the SEC, as well as a game in front of Kentucky. That has led to a No. 10 ranking in the most recent AP Poll, which could climb higher after an overtime win over Florida earlier this week.

About the only blemish on this successful season is off the court. The FBI subpoenaed him for his potential involvement in the college basketball corruption trial set for April. This led to his indefinite suspension, placing assistant Tony Benford in charge.

Benford’s first task is a relative layup against lowly Vanderbilt in Baton Rouge Saturday (8:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network). Let’s take a look at the Tigers’ bracketology outlook, along with their resume and a few key wins and losses that stand out.

LSU NCAA Tournament Resume

Out of conference, the Tigers punched below their weight, feasting on the likes of Grambling State and Incarnate Word. The best wins are over Furman and St. Mary’s, two teams fighting desparately to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. Close defeats to top-15 teams in Florida State and Houston aren’t killers, but a 13-point loss to 10-19 Oklahoma State hurts.

The Tigers elevated their play during conference season on their way to a 14-2 mark. They boast a 2-0 mark against Tennessee (home) and Kentucky (away), a pair of top-6 teams vying for No. 1 seeds. A road win in Gainesville, despite Florida being on the bubble, is nice, as well.

While the SEC is only the fourth-best conference (according to Ken Pomeroy), the ability to avoid major pratfalls is impressive in its own right. As the nation found out Tuesday night, even Duke can almost lose to lowly Wake Forest.

LSU Bracketology Breakdown

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bestows LSU with a No. 3 seed in the East Regional in his latest Bracketology. This would send the Tigers to the Jacksonville (Fla.) pod for an opening round matchup with Yale. If they survive the Ivy Leaguers, Buffalo or Seton Hall awaits.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports pegs them as high as a No. 2 seed out of the West. If they take care of business against projected No. 15 seed Wright State, the Tigers could still face Seton Hall, given they prevail over Iowa State in Tulsa.

Bracket Matrix aggregates 92 prognostications from across the internet. LSU State averages out to a 2.92, which puts them as a 3-seed, with a smattering of brackets calling for a 2.

The path to a potential No. 1 seed starts with avoiding a bad loss against lowly Vanderbilt tonight. The next step would be offing the Volunteers or Wildcats again in the SEC Tournament.

If you ask an LSU fan who lived through the 2017 season, a 2 or 3-seed probably sounds just fine and dandy. The real worry is how the team responds without the leader that got them into this position.