MSU Spartans March Madness: Latest NCAA Tournament Predictions

Getty Head coach Tom Izzo of the Michigan State Spartans watches action during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Tom Izzo used to be Mr. March. After taking over for long-term Michigan State coach Judd Heathcote in 1995, the diminutive fireball has led the Spartans to 7 Final Fours. That ranges from a national championship in 2000 to a national semifinal as recently as 2015.

Then, 2016 happened. 2 regular-season wins and a Big Ten Tournament title led to a 5-0 mark in March. It earned Izzo and company a 2-seed and a date with Middle Tennessee State in the opening round. The Blue Raiders stunned the Spartans 90-81, and the Izzo late-season magic has shriveled since then.

Since the loss, Michigan State sports just a 5-6 record over the last 3 Marches. This includes a Round of 32 exit last year to 10th-seeded Syracuse and a 1-point loss last Saturday at 15-14 Indiana.

The Spartans did beat Nebraska at home Tuesday 91-76 to set up a matchup with rival Michigan for at least a share of the Big Ten title. Due to a gutty performance in Ann Arbor without starting center Nick Ward (right hand), it’s also a chance for a potential sweep of their in-state rivals.

Izzo and company enter tonight’s contest against the Wolverines (8 p.m. EST, ESPN) with an opportunity to loudly reverse the negative March trend.

Let’s take a look at the latest on their bracketology outlook, along with their resume and a few key wins and losses that stand out.

Michigan State NCAA Tournament Resume

Out of conference, the Spartans boast a couple decent wins alongside a pair of respectable losses. They knocked out a pair of bubble teams in Texas and Florida (both away from East Lansing), as well as an underperforming but talented UCLA squad. Close defeats to No. 13 Kansas and at Louisville aren’t killers.

Conference play has provided a few highs, but also some real blemishes. An early January rout of Purdue has aged very well, as the Boilermakers control their own destiny to win the Big Ten (Ken Pomeroy’s top-rated conference). Without their starting center Nick Ward, the Spartans also topped rival Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Getting swept by the mediocre Hoosiers, however, is not a good look. Losing to 11-18 Illinois in Champaign is even worse.

Michigan State Bracketology Breakdown

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bestows Michigan State with a No. 2 seed in the East Regional in his latest Bracketology. This would send the Spartans to the Des Moines pod for an opening round matchup with Wright State. A win sets up a Round of 32 tilt with Wofford or St. John’s.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports pegs them with a No. 3 seed out of the West. If they take care of business against projected No. 14 seed Hofstra, the Spartans would face the winner of Buffalo-Temple in Hartford (Conn.).

Bracket Matrix aggregates 92 prognostications from across the internet. Michigan State averages out to a 2.12, which puts them as a 2-seed, with a smattering of brackets calling for a 3.

For the Spartans to climb the ladder to a No. 1 seed, they almost assuredly have to win out and seize the Big Ten Tournament. Additionally, some other contenders have to trade losses just before tournament time. This would include teams such as Duke, Virginia and North Carolina in the ACC, as well as Kentucky and Tennessee during SEC play.

A really loud statement would be a sweep over John Beilein and Michigan. The Wolverines have been in the top-10 for much of the season, and a pair of victories over them would speak volumes.

The only other sweep that could compete with it is Duke’s over Virginia (or perhaps North Carolina’s if they hold serve versus the Blue Devils tonight).