Texas Tech March Madness: Updated NCAA Tournament Predictions

Texas Tech is one game away from clinching its first-ever Big XII regular-season title. The Red Raiders, the No. 10 team in the NET rankings, last won a conference championship as part of the Southwest Conference in 1996.

Chris Beard’s team enters the regular-season finale Saturday against Iowa State with a 25-5 record and tied with Kansas State for first place with a 13-4 mark. According to Ken Pomeroy, the conference is the second-best in the country behind the Big Ten. It stands to reason that the champion would be rewarded a high seed. Whether or not that’s a No. 1 seed is the pressing question.

Let’s take a look at the latest on the bracketology outlook for Texas Tech, along with its resume and a few key wins and losses that stand out.

Texas Tech NCAA Tournament Resume

Fortunately for the Red Raiders, Big XII play has provided ample opportunities for resume-defining victories. Blowing out No. 13 Kansas by 29 on Feb. 23 stands out as one of the most dominant wins on anyone’s portfolio.

The problem comes with the non-conference. A 12-1 record is positive, but 3 of those opponents (Southern Cal, Nebraska and Arkansas) sport 15-14 records and don’t exactly impress. The only blemish was an 11-point defeat to Duke at Madison Square Garden. While there’s no shame there, that was the only team that could’ve turned heads on the committee.

Most recently against a desperate Texas team on Monday, the No. 1 efficiency defense in the country locked down the Longhorns to just 51 points and .84 points per possession.

More positively, Beard’s team doesn’t have anything approximating a bad loss. The “worst” would be to Baylor, the No. 33 per Pomeroy. When a borderline top-25 squad is the “black mark” on your resume, you’re in good shape.

Texas Tech Bracketology Breakdown

A number of analysts and sites share an admiration for the work Chris Beard and company have done this year in Lubbock.

ESPN partner Joe Lunardi bestows them with a No. 3 seed in the Midwest Regional in his latest Bracketology. This would send Texas Tech to the Tulsa pod for an opening round matchup with Georgia Southern. In this scenario, the next opponent would be the winner of Auburn and Ohio State.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also has the Red Raiders with a No. 3 seed and also out of the Midwest. It also pits them versus Georgia Southern.  Get past that and defending national champion Villanova awaits. This is assuming Jay Wright’s crew tops Florida.

Both teams would be rematches from last year’s tournament. Texas Tech topped the Gators 69-66 in the Round of 32 behind senior guard Keenan Evans’ 22 points.

Against Villanova, the Red Raiders held the Wildcats to their fewest points of the tournament, eventually losing 71-59 in the Elite 8.

Bracket Matrix aggregates 92 prognostications from across the internet. Texas Tech averages out to a 3.05, which puts them as a 3-seed, with a smattering of brackets calling for a 2.

For the Red Raiders to climb the ladder to that No. 2 spot or higher, they almost assuredly have to win out and seize the Big XII Tournament. A 3-seed would still send them to nearby Tulsa. If they end up in the Midwest Regional in Kansas City, the site of the conference tournament.

Take care of business the next 2 games against the Cyclones, and the chances increase of competing for a Final Four berth in familiar territory.

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