Though the Raiders will soon be calling Las Vegas home, they aren’t getting any love from NFL oddsmakers. Despite all the big moves the Raiders have made this offseason, there doesn’t seem to be much confidence in their ability to make the playoffs.
The odds come from BetOnline (via Mason Media Consulting), and they don’t show much confidence in the Raiders’ chances. They rank the Raiders as one of the teams least likely to make the playoffs.
- Miami Dolphins 8.6 percent
- Arizona Cardinals 9.5 percent
- Cincinnati Bengals 13.6 percent
- Washington Redskins 15.8 percent
- New York Giants 15.8 percent
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18.9 percent
- Oakland Raiders 18.9 percent
- Detroit Lions 18.9 percent
- Buffalo Bills 18.9 percent
According to this breakdown, the Raiders are tied with the Buccaneers, Lions and Bills for having the sixth least likely chance to make the playoffs. Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean the oddsmakers think that the Raiders are the sixth worst team in the league, they just don’t think the team has a high chance of making the playoffs for a number of reasons. While the Raiders have seen a huge influx of talent this offseason, their schedule is absolutely brutal and that was likely a large factor when these odds were made. The teams the Raiders will be playing in 2019 had a combined record of 137-117-2 in 2018, toughest out of any other team in the league. It doesn’t help that the Raiders are in the AFC West where the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs are expected to continue to be strong.
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Also making matters worse for the Raiders is that they have to play a game in London that counts as one of their home games. The Raiders won’t play a game in Oakland for over a month because of the London game. All of this doesn’t bode well for the new look Raiders, but does it mean that the Raiders can’t overcome their tough schedule?
#Raiders 2019 schedule and opponents’ overall grade and rank in 2018 (con’t):
WK10 vs LAC 90.6 9th
WK11 vs CIN 78.8 24th
WK12 @ NYJ 80.7 20th
WK13 @ KC 93.6 4th
WK14 vs TEN 87.4 13th
WK15 vs JAX 76.5 26th
WK16 @ LAC 90.6 9th
WK17 @ DEN 86.0 16th
Strength of schedule can change greatly by season’s end. For example, last year the Raiders were supposed to have one of the easiest schedules in the league but ended up with the second hardest after seeing how every opponent’s end of season record turned out. Truth is, it’s impossible to know how every team is going to look until the season actually starts. The Kanas City Chiefs could slow down significantly after losing Kareem Hunt and the Tyreek Hill situation can’t help things. The same thing could happen to other Raider opponents like the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts, who both vastly surpassed expectations last year.
It makes sense why oddsmakers would be skeptical of the Raiders’ chances. They have a lot of new faces in Oakland and nobody will know how everybody gels until the team hits the playing field. If quarterback Derek Carr can put up big numbers with his revamped offense, the Raiders could make serious noise. People seem to forget that Carr carried the Raiders to a lot of wins in 2016 and the roster looks a lot more like it did then than it did in 2018. Fox Sports actually ranked Carr as the second most clutch quarterback over the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady for the 2016 season. If the Raiders could capture some of that 2016 magic, they won’t just make the playoffs, they could compete for the super bowl.
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Raiders Disrespected in New 2019 NFL Playoff Odds