Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Getty Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

The Kansas City Chiefs and defending NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes are set to host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in a matchup of division leaders.

The Chiefs are listed as a 11-point home favorite for the game over the Colts, with a total of 56 — by far the highest of the weekend.

Most recently, Kansas City survived a scare against the Detroit Lions, moving to 4-0 when Darrel Williams rushed in from 1-yard out with 20 seconds left.

The Colts fell last week in a disappointing 31-24 loss to the Raiders.

Here’s some background on the teams and advice on who to back in this one.

Patrick Mahomes Happy to Play at Arrowhead

Fantasy Football Team Names

GettyPatrick Mahomes

Mahomes has thrown for 1,510 yards with 10 touchdowns and no picks during the team’s undefeated start. After three of their first four on the road, Mahomes is ready to return home.

“Any time you get to play at Arrowhead Stadium it’s exciting,” Mahomes said, “but from the experience I got the last few years from primetime games, how the fans show up and they’re loud, it’s going to be an awesome feeling out there.”

As is with most defending MVPs, Mahomes has the attention of Colts skipper Frank Reich.

“He’s a unique talent. He’s fun to watch – I’m not going to lie. Last week when we were playing the Raiders, I was watching a lot of Kansas City’s offense against them and he made a couple throws that you just shake your head and you say, ‘How do you do that?’” Reich said. “I think it’s just great for the league when you’ve got players that are that good but also are really pros on and off the field. But make no mistake, everybody can be beat in this league.”

Colts Stars T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack are Banged Up

GettyColts RB Marlon Mack

Two of the Colts playmakers are not at 100 percent entering the matchup with the high-powered Chiefs.

Mack is considered a true game-time decision, and he would be missed. His 338 yards has him just outside of the top five in the NFL in rushing.

Hilton’s absence was obvious last week in the Colts’ loss to the Raiders, with Jacoby Brissett completing a season-low 52 percent of his passes.

That being said, Brissett has done a solid job filling in for Andrew Luck, who surprisingly retired. Before last week’s loss against the Falcons, Brissett completed 28-of-37 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception.

“He can make all the throws and he can scramble,” said Chiefs’ cornerback Bashaud Breeland. “He came in and he’s been doing exactly what they needed him to do. He takes care of the ball and he puts his team in a good position to make plays. He’s just being the quarterback he needed to be with the situation that they’re going through.”

Colts vs. Chiefs: Trends, Best Bet and Prediction

Here are some trends to keep in mind going into the game, courtesy of Odds Shark.

  • The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs’ last 5 games (avg. combined score: 59.4).
  • The Colts are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games before a bye.

The Chiefs are tough at home and won’t want to be sweating out another close one this week. The KC defense isn’t elite, but there’s some better tape for defenses to understand what Brissett is doing, and two of his top weapons being banged up doesn’t help either. There will be plenty of scoring, but the Chiefs will do more of it and cover in this one.

Pick: Chiefs -11

Total: Over 56

Score: Chiefs 38, Colts 24